STOP SPENDING MONEY | The NEW Economic Threat

What's up guys, it's Graham here. So it's official: inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years. Investors are beginning to brace for the worst, and new data shows that prices could very well continue to climb even higher. For instance, in just the last few weeks, we've seen Netflix increase the price of their monthly subscription. Chipotle raised the cost of their menu to offset higher wages. Dollar Tree customers are physically sick over a 25% higher charge, and things have become so bad that the Big Mac inflation index—which measures the cost of a burger relative to the U.S. cost of living—has risen at a faster pace than the average rental price.

So let's talk about this new report, which shows how the wealthiest people in the world are investing their money in preparation for ever-increasing prices; why so many people are beginning to invest in cryptocurrency; if the Bitcoin death cross is something to be concerned about; and just how much more expensive things are expected to get. Right after you smash the like button, first let's start with a topic that most of us are well too familiar with: inflation.

Throughout last year, we've grappled with inflation rising significantly higher and faster than almost anyone anticipated. Now to the tune of seven percent annually, which is the highest rate measured in the last 40 years. To put that into perspective, that's the equivalent of needing to spend an extra seven dollars to buy the exact same item that was only a hundred dollars a year ago. And the concern is that it's only getting worse. If you're curious how much extra you're spending these last 12 months, gasoline is up 50 percent, rental cars are up 36 percent, hotel rooms are up 25 percent, furniture is up 14%. But hey, at least on the bright side, school books and supplies are down a half a percent.

Okay, but seriously, unless you're living off the grid, watching YouTube videos from pre-COVID technology powered by solar panels while you grow your own food, chances are you've been impacted by these price increases. As a result, your money is quickly losing its purchasing power. But just consider this: despite wage growth increasing by 4.7 percent year over year after inflation, the average worker wound up with a pay cut of two percent simply because everything else is more expensive relative to their income.

This worries some economists that we could soon enter what's called a wage-price spiral, as workers demand more income to pay for the cost of higher items, which winds up driving up those costs of items even further, leading to even higher wages, which starts to spiral over again. Of course, this has to end somewhere, and prices just can't keep rising indefinitely until we're lugging around five hundred thousand dollars in a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread.

So to help soften rising prices, the FED plans to scale back on their stimulus, slowly begin to raise rates, and otherwise increase the cost of borrowing to the point where prices begin to stabilize. But as a result, some worry that the FED might be moving a little bit too quickly with the rate increases that would cause us to enter a recession.

So given all of this super spooky information, you have to ask yourself: how are the wealthy investing their money, and do they know something that we don't? Welcome to the world of Tiger 21. This is an exclusive investing club of just over 700 members who collectively invest more than 70 billion dollars. They represent some of the wealthiest households in the world, and in order to join, you must pass through a background screening process, have more than 10 million dollars in investable assets, and pay an annual membership fee of thirty thousand dollars.

Although what makes this so unique is that every year they publish a report on how their members are investing their money, and they make it public for everyone to see. This truly gives us a first-hand look into the finances of the ultra-rich, and in terms of what they're doing, it's rather surprising. One, they’re building an inflation-resistant portfolio. Unlike Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, 65 percent of its members expect inflation to accelerate in the next year, and that it will be permanent, not transitory.

As a result, the majority of them are placing their money in real estate, like industrial properties and apartment buildings, investing in safe established companies like Amazon, Apple, consumer staples, and streaming services. Most surprisingly, they're investing in number two: cryptocurrency. Except they're not just allocating one percent of their portfolio and then calling it a day. Oh no. Instead, they're said to be doubling their cryptocurrency holdings with 33% invested in Ethereum, 33% invested in Bitcoin, 23% invested within a cryptocurrency fund, 15% invested in other coins, and 2% in Dogecoin. Yes, seriously. So either Elon Musk is a member, or some of the wealthiest investors in the world are buying up some Dogecoin on the side.

And three, they're investing in alternative energy. This includes companies like Tesla, autonomous vehicles, and Rivian. Apparently, they were even quoted as saying, "If the last decade was about growing use to renewable energy, the next decade will be about the growing use of renewable power," although it seems like they're also taking another approach that should be able to withstand a different scenario—that would be a bear market.

All right, so now let's talk about why they're rich or preparing for a bear market. You know, even though everyone always says "this time is different," this time is truly different because more than 36 percent of the stocks within the NASDAQ index are down 50 percent or more from their recent high, even though the index as a whole is only down eight percent. So if that sounds confusing, let me explain.

The NASDAQ composite index encompasses a group of 3,000 stocks weighted by market cap, meaning the largest, most valuable companies make up the biggest portion of the overall index. On the NASDAQ 100, for instance, Apple makes up a whole 12 percent, with Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla encompassing another 25%. That means if you invest a hundred dollars in the NASDAQ, 137 percent of your money goes within just the top five companies. So if they go up, chances are the rest of the index goes up alongside with it. But in this case, when you account for the 3,000 stocks held within the NASDAQ composite index, over a thousand of them are down more than 50 percent, even though the index is only down eight.

The normal range is that when the NASDAQ is within 10 percent of its peak, just 12.5 percent of its stocks have declined that much, suggesting that this time is quite the anomaly and is not truly reflecting the pain of the market held within smaller companies. They say that since 1972, there have only been 39 days where the NASDAQ is held within 10% of its highs while more than 35 percent of its members were down more than 50 percent from their peaks, and until December 2021, all of them occurred in 1998 and 1999 during the height of the internet bubble.

However, even if a bear market does occur, it's actually not all that uncommon, according to the data. This typically happens every seven to ten years, and when it hits, we see an average drop of 33 percent over a period of 363 days. Now, it's important to remember that all of these are just averages, and just because it's been like this in the past does not mean we'll see a drop of exactly 33 percent for exactly a year in the future. In fact, back in March of 2020, we saw the fastest 30% drop in history since the Great Depression. So anything can happen, especially if you least expect it.

Although other sources give a slightly different outlook on the market, with Newton Analytics predicting just a two percent chance of a bear market over the next 24 months, with an average predicted return of another 20% for those who stay invested. But either way, one thing to consider is that since December 15, 2021, half of the S&P 500 strongest days in the last 20 years occurred during a bear market, and another 34 percent of the market's best days took place within those first two months. In a way, that just reinforces the phrase: buy the dip while you keep investing during a market downturn.

After all, if you're an investor throughout the next 50 years, it's said that you'll live through 14 different bear markets, so chances are it's gonna happen, and the best way to prepare is simply by keep buying as usual. But speaking of buying, we have a surprising twist when it comes to cryptocurrency. And no, it's not the ominous death cross that we'll cover shortly. Instead, it's the fact that 70% of the cryptocurrency holders started investing in 2021, meaning the space is likely to continue growing at a rather rapid rate.

This could be partially due to the fact that cryptocurrency has been gaining much more mainstream acceptance through companies like Tesla, Square, PayPal, and MicroStrategy, who placed a small portion of the reserves in Bitcoin; JP Morgan advocating that investors should allocate one percent of the new asset class; El Salvador embracing Bitcoin as legal tender; and a multitude of free investing apps now including cryptocurrency on their platform—like Public, where you could get a free stock worth all the way up to a thousand dollars when you use the link down below in the description to use the code GRAHAM.

Don't even know! For all of us on YouTube, cryptocurrency kind of seems like this overly hypey thing that everyone is involved in. 42% of the respondents were still highly skeptical and felt like it was too risky, and 34% felt concerned about the lack of market regulation, suggesting that there's still a large percentage of the population out there who has no idea what it is like to rise and fall 50 percent in a few weeks.

Of course, when it comes to that, we can't talk about a fall of 50 without addressing one of the most talked about terms over the last week—and that would be the Bitcoin death cross. For those unaware, this is a term that refers to a trading pattern when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that Bitcoin could enter a bear market, similar to what happened in 2008 when nearly everything dropped 90%.

But a previous analysis found that a Bitcoin death cross has historically occurred near a market low, and that actually signaled near the bottom of the market where you would have done quite well had you just bought in. A more recent look into the history of the death cross confirmed that in 50 percent of the cases, the indicator correctly signaled the downtrend and predicted further declines by 51.5% on average. But on the other hand, in the remaining 50 percent of cases, it generated a false signal, and further increases incurred by 66.5% on average. Or in other words, newsflash: no one knows what they're talking about, and it could just as likely go up as it could go down.

So overall, it seems as though inflation is the number one fear for investors, with more than half of them saying that it was their number one concern. Right now, that's driving the majority of the decision-making throughout the market. For those of you who want to see the first-hand impact of what's happening, an interesting way to track rising prices is what's known as The Big Mac inflation index. Even though it sounds kind of like a joke, the concept is actually quite genius since the Big Mac is a stable product that doesn't change over time, it is a worldwide consumption throughout the population, and is based on a variety of ingredients from meat, dairy, vegetables, and labor. It is the perfect item to track over time in relation to how much it costs to produce.

The Economist has been tracking these hamburger prices since 1986, and as we could see, Big Mac prices have been rising at a faster pace than its predicted CPIs, suggesting that the inflation number that we see is actually an under-inflated amount when we compare it to the rest of the market. Even when compared to the cost of living, the Big Mac index comes out ahead with an even bigger price increase. Or in other words, inflation could actually be much higher than seven percent if the Big Mac is an accurate guide.

If you're curious what you could do about this, the honest answer is invest your money, keep buying as usual, consider switching companies to increase your income, and be aware of rising prices. Sometimes, it might be best to shop around for cheaper alternatives, be vigilant in terms of how much you're spending, and do your best to continue saving. I know that's the boring answer, and it doesn't change over time, but sometimes it helps to be repetitive to really cement the answer that no one knows what's going to happen.

The best preparation is often to smash the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already for the almighty YouTube algorithm. So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching! Also, feel free to add me on Instagram and on my second channel, The Graham Staffing Show. I post there every single day I'm not posting here, so if you want to see a brand new video from me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. Thank you so much for watching, and until next time!