A Serious Warning To All Investors

What's up guys, it's Grahe here. So I had another video that was scheduled to post today, but given the rather abrupt and dramatic selloff throughout everything, including the official start of an S&P 500 bear market, I felt like it would be more appropriate to address everyone's concerns and share my own thoughts about what's going on, in terms of what to expect and how to prepare going forward.

My concern is that for so many people this is the first time that they've experienced losses of this magnitude, or seen what a bear market or a recession actually looks like. Because even though it's easy to think, "This is great! It's a Black Friday sale! I could lower my cost basis! This is perfect!" I would bet that too many people don't fully understand the magnitude of seeing serious life-changing losses in your account, watching years of profits evaporate away in a matter of months, and hitting the sell everything button because you never expect things to get so bad.

That is what I wanted to talk about in this video, as well as what I believe to be the best strategy moving forward. Right after, of course, we thank the sponsor of today's video: the like button. Okay, there is no sponsor, just because I wanted to get straight into the message of the video. So if you wouldn't mind hitting the like button or subscribing for the YouTube algorithm, it would be greatly appreciated.

Now, with that said, let's begin. By now I'm sure we've all heard the saying, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." That was a quote by our Almighty investing savior, Warren Buffett, who spoke those words during a shareholder conference in 1986, just a year before the infamous Black Monday of 1987, where the stock market plummeted over 22% in a single day.

Since then, the market has been no stranger to sudden sell-offs that seemingly appear out of nowhere. In terms of what we're dealing with today, it's fairly straightforward: one, fear of a Federal Reserve rug pull. In less than 48 hours on Wednesday, June 15th, the FED is scheduled to increase rates yet again by an undetermined amount. Up until about a week ago, it was widely presumed that they would be increasing rates by 50 basis points, but now, with inflation having come in significantly higher than expected, there's the concern of a Fed rug pull while the market panics at the thought of an even bigger rate increase than expected. That, in turn, sends the market down.

Two, fear of a recession. It's not surprising that during a time like this, consumers spend less, they cut back, and as a result, the economy slows down. But an unintended consequence of that is mass layoffs. Crypto.com, for instance, just let go of 260 employees; a San Francisco startup downsized by a fifth of their workforce; Bird reduced their staff by 23%. May was the worst month for startup layoffs since the start of the pandemic, which increases our risk of the economy beginning to shrink.

When you combine that with rising rates at the same time as record high inflation, it's easy to see why people are spooked. Third, fear of stagflation. This refers to the perfect storm of slowing growth, rising inflation, and higher unemployment all at the exact same time. This last happened in the 1970s when the FED increased their interest rates to some of the highest levels ever, and now some economists are warning that history has begun to repeat itself.

Now, I genuinely do not say this to try to spread FUD or try to inject fear into the markets, because it's not all bad news, which I'll get into shortly. But I do think that it's important to add context to what we're seeing, because even though the market appears to be completely random, I do think that it's important to prepare for what's about to come, so that way you don't get caught off guard.

Anyway, in terms of what to do during a stock market crash:

Number one, always keep a 3 to 6-month emergency fund at all times. I know I sound like a broken record when I say this non-stop all the time, but it's true. Having 3 to 6 months' worth of your expenses saved up in cash at all times is one of the best ways to ensure that you can make it through a stock market drop. This way, you're not going to have to sell your investments to pay for living expenses in the event you lose your job, your income slows down, or something unexpected occurs.

Second, diversify your investments throughout as many different industries as possible. Just like tech stocks fell 78% during the dot-com bubble, or crypto fell 85% in 2018, that could happen to you if you're not properly insulated in the event of a catastrophic market collapse. The more you spread out your money, the more you reduce your risk and volatility. This is exactly the approach that I've taken: I have 35% of my net worth in real estate, I have 35% in stocks—mostly held throughout broad index funds—20% in cash, and another 10% spread throughout alternative investments, collectibles, and cryptocurrency.

That way, if one of them fails, the others should more than make up for it. If the entire market falls, I still have 20% in cash on the sidelines to keep buying in, even if my income dries up.

Third, speaking of buying in, keep buying in. Listen, I know it's gut-wrenching to watch your investments drop 20 to 50% in value, so then you buy in even more expecting that you're getting a good deal, but it drops even further and further and further until the point where you just want to give up. Depending on what you're invested in, you could already be down 30 to 80%, and it's crazy to think that things could continue to get worse.

But study after study shows that the best thing to do is to stick with the plan and keep buying and holding long-term. That's because every bear market in history was eventually followed by a bull market with an average gain of 158%. If you invest wisely throughout an index fund that tracks the entire market, you won't have to worry about your individual investments underperforming.

Of course, that brings us to number four: don't panic sell. What I've seen so many times is that the psychology that causes you to sell when the market is dropping is usually the same psychology that holds you back from investing when the market starts to recover. This is also why it's so important not to miss out on keeping your money invested in the markets, because every single day that you're out, you could potentially lose a lot of money.

Like Fidelity found, that over 40 years, a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 would have grown to $697,000 if you just kept the money invested without touching it. However, if you just missed the top five best trading days over 40 years, your return would diminish by over $26,000. That really goes to show you that, statistically speaking, just by selling out or trying to time the market, you risk missing out on those best days that would impact your overall return.

So, long story short, don't sell. Next, fifth, keep a steady income. The biggest risk that I see is that a drop in the stock market could often be associated with job loss or a reduction in income as businesses and consumers scale back. Listen, the worst-case scenario isn't so much that the market drops, but instead, that the market drops at the same time you lose your job and have to sell off your investments at a loss to stay afloat.

Now, an emergency fund would be able to hold you over long enough for your investments to hopefully recover, but if it doesn't, you want to make sure you have a consistent income coming in so that way you're not forced to sell if you really don't want to.

Now, six, if you're extra paranoid, hold on to more cash. I'll admit, statistically, this is not what you should be doing, and generally investing your money as soon as possible yields the highest results. But if you want to play it safe and you value peace of mind, then keeping more cash on hand is a way to do that. I usually keep about 15 to 20% of my net worth in cash at all times, and even though it's a lot, I mentally feel better having a large safety net, even if in the short term, it's losing some value to inflation.

The seventh, most importantly, stay out of margin or any leveraged investments. I think it's pretty safe to say that you're playing with fire if you were to borrow money to invest in stocks, cryptocurrency, or any other speculative investment. The only exception to this would be a low-interest rate mortgage on a cash-flowing rental property that you intend to keep long-term. Otherwise, you should probably stay out of debt at all costs.

And lastly, eighth, if you need this money over the next 3 to 5 years, it's probably a good idea not to invest. A few years is just not long enough to ensure that you're actually going to make money, and as we've seen throughout history, there have been multiple times where the market could take all the way up to a decade to recover. So the shorter the time frame you need your money, the less likely you should be invested in something that could drop in price.

The reality is, if you could just stick with the above, you're practically guaranteed to make money in the market over a 20-year period, regardless of what it does in the short term. I say this so confidently because, in the entire history of the stock market, a 20-year holding period has never once produced a negative result. This means that you could literally buy in precisely at the very top and then not do a single thing for 20 years and still make money.

That's because, even though bear markets lose on average 33.8%, the bull markets more than make up for it. What so many people fail to realize is that you're not just going to make one investment one time, and that's it forever. Even though your initial investment might drop, you're hopefully continuing to buy in on a regular basis and lowering your price. If you see your investment drop and then not decide to buy back in, you could potentially be missing out on some of the best days in the market for that money to grow.

And lastly, let me just say this: even though market crashes could be absolutely catastrophic, do your best to change your perspective on how you view this, because riches are absolutely made in recessions. The best opportunities are during a time where no one else is buying in, when everyone thinks the market is doomed, and when market sentiment is at its lowest point.

We last saw this in March 2020 at the beginning of the shutdown and the start of a travel ban when everyone thought we were entering the next Armageddon. Then again in 2010, this happened when the real estate market collapsed, banks went out of business, and there weren't enough buyers for the homes coming on the market. Prior to then, it was the collapse of the dot-com bubble while hundreds of companies went under.

I'm not saying that you should wait for these things to happen, but instead recognize that generally, those are the best times to continue buying in, if you have the means to do so. Long term, anecdotally, I remember starting my real estate career in the beginning of 2008, right as real estate prices had peaked and were about to undergo one of the worst price drops in history.

From the outside looking in, it appeared that was probably one of the worst possible times to enter the market, and for a while, I believed that myself. However, even though I certainly questioned the timing of my entire career, I got to say that going through that recession at an early age in the workforce during a time where everything was dropping in value provided me with a unique outlook in terms of how the markets behave. It provided a huge wakeup call that we have to be proactive and take the necessary steps to ensure that you're covered in the event something were to happen.

Looking back, I really believe that were those moments that solidified and reinforced my desire to save as much money as possible, live below my means, cut back on unnecessary spending, and invest as much disposable income as I can. Now, 14 years later, those are the same philosophies that I continue to talk about today.

So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram. Joy, thank you so much, and until next time!