My Investing Plan For 2023 (How To Prepare)

What's up, Graham? It's guys here.

So 2023 is probably going to be one of the most confusing years for investing. After all, stocks are the cheapest they've been in two years, but there's a chance they could drop even further. Real estate has only started to come back down, but the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates even more. Treasury bonds are beginning to look good, but there's a chance that you can miss out on even better opportunities if you're not paying close attention.

That's why I thought it would be helpful to share exactly where I am planning to invest all of my money throughout 2023, where the next big opportunities could be, and what you could start doing today to put yourself in the best position possible to make money—or I guess just not lose money, depending on which way you look at it.

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Alright, so what makes this year so much different from the last is that we're finally facing the repercussions of higher interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, and declining fundamentals to the point where investing is no longer easy. For example, consumers are only spending more money because they're eating away at their savings. Mass layoffs are becoming increasingly common, with investors sitting on the sidelines, and the chances of a 2023 recession are getting greater by the day with interest rates still increasing.

So it's a lot like navigating a minefield of obstacles just to try to find the best way not to lose money. In addition to that, for a lot of newer investors, 2022 was probably the first year you've ever experienced a substantial loss after getting accustomed to random stocks going up 20 to 50% in a day because they had a good press release.

Now that the markets are beginning to at least somewhat normalize, here's my own investing blueprint throughout the next year that I believe should hold up fairly well even if the overall market continues to decline.

First, let's break down my current investment portfolio. Up until three years ago, I had almost all of my money tied up in several rental properties throughout Southern California. When I say almost all of my money, I'm not exaggerating— it was pretty much everything. Throughout most of my 20s, I would pour almost every single penny I had into property renovations so that at the end of the year, I would be completely broke, although I would quickly make it back and then just repeat the process over again.

But I began to realize, having all my net worth tied up in seven properties in one location is probably not the smartest of ideas if something were to happen. So in 2020, I began focusing my efforts back on index funds and the equities market just so I would have something different to fall back on.

At the same time, I also made the choice to diversify into several alternative assets that I’d also be able to enjoy, like the Ford GT or Tesla Roadster, along with a small three percent allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum. From that point on though, more recently, I began buying treasuries and using money market accounts for anything that isn't immediately invested. By doing that, my entire goal was to create a portfolio that would stay insulated from day-to-day market fluctuations without missing out on any potential growth.

As of today, it's broken down approximately as follows: 35% residential real estate, 35% equities and index funds, 22% treasuries and money market accounts, 4% alternative investments, 3% Bitcoin and Ethereum, and 1% in others. By structuring my portfolio this way, my thinking is that if one group or asset class takes a hit, the others should more than make up for it. If the market continues moving higher, then the portfolio should go up right alongside with it.

But now that we're approaching a new year, I have a slightly different investment strategy in mind because the way I see it, we're probably going to see some really good investing opportunities throughout 2023. It's important to understand precisely what to look out for so that way you don't miss out.

To start, let's talk about the stock market. I think it's no surprise that since they started making YouTube videos back in late 2016, besides a small six percent drop in 2018, the market's been perpetually up. In fact, since then, besides this year, the worst year happened in 2020 where the market still increased more than 16%. However, it's important to realize that this is not a sign of a healthy market, and 20% returns every single year are just not sustainable.

Just for some context, the market is currently down about 15% year-to-date, and if you look back even further, the last time that we saw a loss even close to this was all the way back in 2008—more than 14 years ago. So for a lot of people, this is completely uncharted territory, and it's a huge wake-up call that investing has risks and is not something to be taken lightly.

That's why I've always approached the stock market as an extremely long-term investing strategy with money I don't intend on using for the next 20 to 30 years. That way, all the day-to-day fluctuations make no difference whatsoever. Once you zoom out, you'll be able to see that it generally is very profitable to stay invested.

For instance, one way to analyze potential returns is by looking at what's called the rolling 20-year period of the S&P 500, which basically takes a snapshot to determine how much money you would have made throughout every time frame. Surprisingly, throughout the last century, a 20-year hold has never once lost money. In reality, the worst 20-year annualized return occurred in 1948 at just under four percent a year, while the best year started in 2001 with more than 16% a year.

Of course, the short term is an entirely different story. The first year, you have a 73% chance of being profitable, which increases to 80% in the second year, 90% in the fifth year, and 97% in the 10th year. This basically implies the longer you stay invested, the higher the chances are you'll make money. That's why I've always invested with the mindset that whatever happens in between now and then doesn't really matter.

So throughout 2023, I'll continue investing about 35% of my income into the S&P 500, total stock market, and international index funds, and then I’ll do nothing until 2040. Yes, it's a very boring, slow, and stable approach, but it's one that I believe would be the best for a lot of investors who don't want to play these stocks of the day.

Although this is really only a small part of my investing plan, the next options are what I believe the best opportunities could be. Although before we go into that, as we approach the end of the year, I usually use this as a time to track my investments, analyze my spending, and find ways to improve.

Even though I try to be diligent throughout the year, it helps to have an efficient system that does a lot of the leg work for me. That is where the sponsor, Rocket Money, could help. Rocket Money is an all-in-one personal finance platform that helps you save more and spend less. The app lets you track your expenses, manage and cancel your subscriptions, lower your bills, and build your savings—all in one place.

No joke, I've been using them on a daily basis to keep track of my finances, and they've been incredibly helpful in terms of giving me a high-level overview of everything from spending, expenses by category, income, and payment reminders. It's also not uncommon to spend more money than you think. For example, a study found that the average American spends $133 more per month on subscriptions than they expect.

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Next, we should talk about my personal favorite investment—real estate. Like I mentioned earlier, prior to 2020, real estate was my single largest investment, but lately, I began to scale back. I've sold two properties that I no longer believe offer an attractive return relative to what they were worth, and I put my rental property investing on the back burner because it became very difficult for me to find a deal.

Now just for some context, when I was working full time as a real estate agent, I would spend months looking at properties the moment they came on the market. I would write sometimes multiple offers every single week, and then once I closed, I would spend another few months renovating the property and then renting it out. It was not a passive process by any means. As other projects became more urgent, I decided that real estate could wait till I balanced everything else out.

But now I'm getting back into real estate, just not in the way that you might think. See, a few months ago, Dave Ramsey made an interesting point. He mentioned that the strongest returns of my entire portfolio came from the investments that I enjoyed the most, which happened to be real estate. When he said that, something clicked—that I should get back to the core of what made all of this possible to begin with.

That's because the more time I spent looking back in the real estate market, the more opportunity I personally saw in commercial real estate, especially during a time where they've already declined 13% from the peak. This encompasses everything from retail to office space to restaurants to shopping centers to warehouse space—anything a business could use over the next five to 25 years.

Not to mention, another advantage of commercial real estate is what's referred to as a triple net, which means a tenant is responsible for paying the operating expenses like taxes, insurance, and maintenance fees. This would allow me more time to focus on the larger projects without being bogged down with the day-to-day management of a real estate portfolio.

Now, I did not expect it to be easy to find a property that I want, but my rationale is that with treasury rates currently paying between four and five percent, commercial real estate should be selling at a significantly higher premium given the risks associated with tying up your money in a property.

So once I find something that makes sense to purchase, I'll make an offer and then see what happens. This time, I'm not going to limit myself to any location, but if you go ahead and subscribe, I'll do my best to keep you posted as soon as I have any updates. I'm just planning to be extremely patient here—I'm not in any rush, and hopefully, I could find something in the next 12 months.

But in addition to that, there are a few other options that we have to talk about, including alternative assets. As of now, this currently makes up under five percent of my entire portfolio, but admittedly a few of those investments have done fairly well. For example, this 2005 Ford GT has gone up about 30% since I bought it two years ago. My Tesla Roadster has so far been a much safer investment than the stock, and several of the watches I've bought are up about 20% from the price I paid.

Now that doesn't mean you should go all in on Rolex watches and exotic cars, but it does mean that you can indulge your passions in such a way that doesn't cost you money. For example, I still think bone stock Honda S2000 is relatively undervalued. 2000s BMWs could be easily modified and are slowly becoming more collectible, and if you're a fan of watches, consider a vintage Tudor since they're as close as you could get to a Rolex without paying the price of a Rolex.

Although when it comes to myself, even though I did add on a few alternative purchases in 2020 and 2021, I'd rather just focus more of my time on buying more real estate, so I'm not going to be adding anything more to this category. However, I am still buying a small amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum on a regular basis, but it only makes up about three percent of my entire portfolio, split evenly between the two.

My thinking is that if it does well in the future, great, and if not, it only makes up three percent of my entire portfolio, and I'm willing to take the risk to see what happens long-term. Finally, the remainder is going into treasuries and money market funds that are currently paying anywhere between three and a half and four and a half percent interest.

For me, the entire point of all of this is just to save up enough until a good real estate deal comes up, at which point I could evaluate exactly how much I'll need. But until then, at least I get some safe return on my money, whereas otherwise they'd be earning nothing.

So overall in 2023, I have a feeling it's going to be another year of more of the same. Personally, I don't think that stocks or real estate are going to see any sort of miraculously crazy returns. I don't think there are going to be that many good opportunities out there, and I think it's a great year for everyone to reset their expectations of what it means to be an investor.

This is all about gaining a more level-headed approach and sticking with the fundamentals that have proven to work for over a century. At the end of the day, I have not stopped dollar-cost averaging into the markets, and by diversifying my portfolio throughout as many different options as possible, I'm basically trying to build something that could withstand Jerome Powell trying to ruin it.

So really, all of this is done with the next 20 to 30 years in mind, and like I said earlier, whatever happens in between now and then doesn't really matter. Now, of course, that doesn't mean I wouldn't jump at a really good commercial real estate property, but things like that take time.

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So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching! As always, feel free to add me on Instagram, and don't forget that you can get a free stock with sponsor public.com down below in the description with the code Graham. Enjoy! Thank you so much for watching, and until next time!