The Threat of AI Weapons

I'll explain more at the end, but let me set up this clip in five words: robot killers, Stephen Fry, watch.

Autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare after gunpowder and nuclear bombs. They could mount rapid devastating attacks on a huge scale. Thousands of experts including Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have signed an open letter calling for a ban on the weapons. They say drones that can autonomously find and eliminate people meeting certain criteria are feasible within years, not decades.

But calls for a ban have been rejected by the world's 10 largest military powers, and Musk has warned that international competition for AI superiority is the most likely cause of World War 3. So, do we have a recipe for disaster?

Let's start with the current situation. During Obama's presidency, the number of American troops in war zones dropped by around 90 percent. But there were ten times more drone strikes. Russia has multiple unmanned drone tanks in development and completely autonomous armed vehicles guarding missile bases. America plans to enable its Abrams tanks to control robotic wingman vehicles to attack the enemy while protecting the manned tank.

It is also considering a remote-controlled version of the high-speed ripsaw vehicle. Air power is already used with relative impunity. And soon, the fighters will use AI to control drone wingmen able to carry weapons, test air defenses, and keep human pilots even further from danger.

Around the world, anti-ballistic missile defenses and drones are diminishing nuclear deterrence. This is the US Navy's new unmanned ship designed to hunt submarines and launch surface weapons. It will cost around 20 thousand dollars per day to operate compared to 700 thousand dollars per day for a manned destroyer. In a simulation test with the Air Force Research Lab, AI drones repeatedly defeated a human pilot.

Former Air Force battle manager Jean Lee tried and failed to hit the drones and was destroyed by them every time. He said they seemed to be aware of his intention and reacted instantly to his movements and attacks. Autonomous weapons would be cheap to mass-produce and may become available to terrorists and dictators on the black market.

A recent report by the US Defense Science Board called for immediate action to accelerate military AI development and understand the capabilities of other powers. It also noted that commercial drones are rapidly improving and private AI firms are well ahead of the military. Some argue AI will reduce accidental casualties by making fewer mistakes.

If a soldier believes someone is a threat, their life depends on making a quick decision. A robot, on the other hand, could react a fraction of a second before it's fired on or even wait until it's attacked. But the weapons could also be extremely effective at assassinations, subduing populations, and selectively killing particular ethnic groups.

The second revolution in warfare brought the world close to World War 3 with the Cuban Missile Crisis. The third revolution may be even more volatile. We also need to plan for an even greater threat from AI itself. Many experts believe it will surpass human intelligence in the next few decades. It may then assume full control of the world's networked weapons.

Would it use them for peacekeeping? Or for bringing humanity to a quick end? Whether or not humans retain control and AI arms race may be a race to Armageddon. We believe a ban that's difficult to enforce is better than a world flooded with cheap anonymous autonomous weapons. What do you think?

So I hope you enjoyed that clip or were frightened by it. Let me know what you thought in the comments below. That clip was actually made by friends of mine who run a YouTube channel called Pindex. They make incredibly high-quality educational videos. If you want to check them out, I will put a link in the description and one up here.

Now, you know whenever I see those Boston Dynamics videos come out, I'm always simultaneously amazed at the achievements that they've been able to produce and simultaneously scared that I'm watching the birth of the ancestors of our future robot overlords. So, yeah, I've got mixed feelings about this, but I think it's a really important topic, and that's why I wanted to share this clip with you.

And I also wanted to highlight the fine work of the guys over at Pindex, so yeah, definitely check them out. And for those of you who are asking, “Derrick, what about your videos? Why haven't you been posting very much lately?” Well, I have been working on some stuff. In fact, I've got a full-length 90-minute documentary coming out in the summer of this year. It'll be available globally, so watch out for that. I will be giving you some updates closer to the day.

And I also have a pilot for a brand new series that I worked on with MinutePhysics and MinuteEarth. I will put a link in the description. And if you're in the U.S., you can go check it out. Other places are geo-blocked. You know I can't say anything for that but it's our intention to try to get this series out to as many people around the world as we possibly can.

So if you can check it out, go and do that now, and I will be posting some more videos soon, I promise. Hopefully, it will explain why I've been absent for some of this time, so yeah. I hope you enjoyed that clip.