WARNING: The Biggest Wealth Transfer in History Is Coming
What's up guys, it's Graham here! So, throughout the last year, we've all seen the Great Resignation, where the number of workers who quit their jobs broke an all-time U.S. record. The Great Reset claimed that by 2030, you'll own nothing and be happy. And now we have a new topic that's beginning to gain a lot more attention and almost certainly going to happen a lot faster than people expect, and that would be the Great Wealth Transfer.
Lately, there's been no shortage of articles and headlines talking about how the greatest wealth transfer in history has just begun, warning you on how to prepare while young people are being robbed of their future forever. So, given how the vast majority of my audience is a millennial and will be directly affected by this, let's talk about exactly what the Great Wealth Transfer is and why experts say that this transfer will constitute the largest redistribution of wealth in human history.
Although before I answer that, we should first transfer a tap to that like button by making it turn black for the YouTube algorithm! With just a quick second of your time, you'll get access to almost a dozen hours that were spent planning, filming, and editing this video, all for the cost of a little tap of the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, thank you guys so much! Now, with that said, let's begin.
Alright, so first we need to talk about what the Great Wealth Transfer actually is and exactly what's at stake without having to spend nineteen thousand five hundred dollars for an annual subscription that details the inner workings of the 60 trillion dollar redistribution of wealth. But let's not get ahead of ourselves so quickly, and we'll start with the basics.
On the surface, the Great Wealth Transfer refers to a very large shift in money from Baby Boomers to Millennials. What makes this so significant is that a lot of money is about to change hands—like a lot, a lot! According to the Federal Reserve, Americans aged 70 and older had a total net worth of 35 trillion dollars. On top of that, older generations will hand down an estimated 61 trillion dollars from 2018 to 2042, shaping the way our economy allocates its resources and prompting the questions: what's being inherited? Will it last? How is it going to be taxed? And why is this a problem?
Well, keep in mind that as of right now, Millennials are significantly further behind than almost every single financial milestone: owning less wealth, taking on more debt, earning a smaller amount, delaying home ownership, and refusing to invest. So, they're quickly falling behind. Not only that, but it was also found that Millennials own just five percent of all U.S. wealth. However, that's about to change because they are soon going to become the wealthiest generation on record.
So, that of course begs the question: what exactly is being passed down, and why could this be one of the biggest opportunities for everybody watching? Well, according to the Federal Reserve, 20 trillion dollars is going to come in the form of corporate equities and mutual fund shares.
So, in other words, stocks, bonds, businesses, and other assets that could be liquidated. Almost 15 trillion dollars is held in the form of real estate, like a primary residence, vacation home, rental property, or maybe even a corporate headquarters. And the remaining 21 trillion dollars falls within the other category, like family heirlooms, art, cash, collectibles, and maybe even a priceless artifact that you had no idea existed until you went on the Antique Roadshow.
In total, that's about 60 trillion dollars trading hands over the next 30 years, which, by the way, amounts to 27 percent of all U.S. wealth and 157 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. So, where is it all going? Nursing homes? Just kidding—kind of. Well, one study found that adults who receive an inheritance save just half while spending, donating, or losing the rest.
And nearly 20 percent of Baby Boomers who received a hundred thousand dollars or more spend their entire gift. That means if we do some very basic napkin math, about 30 trillion dollars is soon going to enter the economy through the sale of assets and additional spending. But here's where things get very interesting: HSBC surveyed that retirees expect to leave an average inheritance of 177 thousand dollars, although actual numbers show something quite a lot different.
The Federal Reserve found that the median inheritance was sixty-nine thousand dollars and the average, when you account for the vast sums of wealth, was seven hundred and seven thousand dollars. Not to mention things were even larger if you have a trust fund with an average balance of four million sixty-two thousand nine hundred and eighteen dollars. So yeah, that's a lot of Starbucks and avocado toast!
So, obviously, when you hear numbers like this on the surface, it makes you realize that most wealth is highly concentrated and passes down from one generation to another. In fact, if we break this down even further, it was found that the least wealthy group of families have received on average a sixty-one hundred dollar inheritance, while the wealthiest one percent of families have received on average a 2.7 million dollar inheritance.
Although, despite some of these big numbers being thrown around while we're on the topic of a wealth transfer, here's what I actually found the most surprising. It was found that 70 percent of families lose their wealth by the second generation, and ninety percent lose their wealth by the third generation. Why? Well, first of all, contrary to what a lot of people believe, less than five percent of very high net worth individuals worth more than five million dollars inherited their wealth— that's it!
The other 83.7 percent are completely self-made, and the remaining 11.6 percent have inherited money and then turned it into something even bigger. That leads people to realize that vast fortunes are often created from those who grew up in families at or below the middle income, and as a result, their children see the hard work and struggles they had to endure for what they had. But still, seventy percent of the time, their children take this wealth for granted and they don't take the proper precautions to watch it closely, and so they wind up with less than where they started.
By the third generation, though, they tend to be so far removed from the efforts of their grandparents, and by not seeing these efforts firsthand, ninety percent wind up no wealthier than when their grandparents first started out, thereby repeating the cycle over again. This is something very important to mention, because a Great Wealth Transfer is very likely to be spent paying down debts, mortgages, and student loans, and then reinvested or spent on other endeavors.
Like, did you know it takes the average recipient of an inheritance 19 days until they buy a new car? Now, even though that could be good news for Tesla shareholders and car salesmen, the bigger talking point isn't so much the cash, stocks, and real estate, but instead the value and transfer of privately owned and operated businesses, which make up 21 trillion dollars of that total amount.
So just tear this out. On the surface, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Baby Boomers own about two-thirds of the roughly 4 million U.S. businesses with employees, and as they get older, 70, they're expected to sell those businesses as a way to pay for retirement. After all, only 40 percent of U.S. family-owned businesses transition into a second-generation business, approximately 13% are passed down successfully to a third generation, and only three percent survive to a fourth generation or beyond.
And I know this sounds a bit morbid, but in almost half of all cases, the business's failure is a direct result of the founders passing, meaning very few businesses survive beyond the first generation, leaving the reality that over the next 10 to 30 years, the entire landscape of small business is going to change.
So, overall, in terms of what this means and how this impacts you, whether or not you're receiving a large windfall, here's what you need to know.
Millennials will soon become the wealthiest generation on record. This means the GameStop, AMC, and Dogecoin will soon become the staples of the American economy—just kidding! But it does mean that eventually, their socially conscious ideologies will become more of a reality and in the process, we're likely to continue moving towards green energy, solar tech, electric vehicles, social media, and designer coffee shops where everybody wears Converse.
Millennials are becoming much more financially savvy. I think our generation has a much stronger grasp on risk, returns, diversification, and the importance of dollar-cost averaging a good ol' index fund. On top of that, even though 40% of Millennials said that they would not trust somebody else with their money, 64% said that they would trust established wealth management brands more than the new players, meaning there's a very even balance between the people who want to do it themselves on Wall Street Bets and the people who hire a financial advisor to tell them not to panic sell.
The IRS always wins and taxes are inevitable for inheritances above 11 million dollars and soon to be five and a half million dollars in 2026—40% goes to the IRS, which is going to add up to a substantial amount.
Now, what's interesting is that under that threshold, inherited investments are only taxable on the gains that occurred after that person's passing, meaning somebody could have invested a hundred thousand dollars into Tesla at twenty dollars a share, passed it on to their children with a market value of five million dollars, and with that stepped-up tax basis, their children would only be responsible for paying taxes on profit above that five million dollars. Ultimately, this stepped-up tax basis loophole is probably going to be eliminated at some point, but it is something to keep in mind.
Economic spending is probably going to increase. This is arguably a great thing for the economy, because when 50% of inherited wealth is spent, that means a lot more money going back into circulation. We could see more real estate changing hands, cars being bought and sold, and more money being spent on leisure activities and vacations. So overall, that's going to boost everything else alongside it.
New opportunities are going to present themselves. As one door closes, another opens, and inevitably, investment in entrepreneurial ideas will come from a shift of demand, trend, and macro changes. That could also mean that when millennials for cash over stocks, that could lead to a surge in alternative assets like maybe cryptocurrency.
So overall, the Great Wealth Transfer is going to have a significant impact on our entire economy over the next few decades. And even if you don't get that 11 million dollar trust fund, there's still going to be ever-changing opportunities for money being spent, moved, and built each and every year. Ultimately, this will lead to a lot more demand, new businesses will be built, and a lot more money is going to be spent.
Economics Explained really said it best when they mentioned that the actual impact is going to be hard to predict, but money being moved from the hands of a generation with a high intensity to hoard and save wealth to a generation where 38 percent would rather spend money now than save it, it's going to create some type of boom. But we have to wait to see exactly what it is.
So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching! Also, make sure to subscribe, hit the like button, add me on Instagram, or on my second channel, The Graham Stephan Show. I post there every single day! I'm not posting here, so if you want to see a brand new video from me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. Thank you so much, and until next time!