War + Investing in China

less than 1m read

·Nov 8, 2024

Um, what are you paying attention to? What is concerning to you as it relates to the conflict internally? Um, now, and very classically, um, there's the emergence of populism of both sides.

Populism on the right, populism on the left. Populism means, um, that they will fight it and win at all costs. They're not inclined to compromise; winning is the only thing that matters.

As a result, you have the emergence of this. We saw it with, uh, the January 6 events. Um, you could see it more, and you have to ask yourself: how will those be resolved?

Will they be resolved through compromise? You know, democracy requires compromise. Um, but you have really greater populism and greater extremism.

And, um, you know, it's concerning because a certain number, a certain percentage of the population, um, would fight rather than lose. And you're seeing that it's not easy to be part of the middle.

You have to pick a side, you know, and pick a side and fight. That's always been classically the case. If you look at the principle or the Russian Civil War, they call it the Russian Revolution, but Civil War—the Chinese, the Cuban; you know, I don't know many of them.

Um, you have that dynamic taking place. So, um, um, the working together to resolve issues is not likely to be great, and is a big risk.

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War + Investing in China

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