Why The Stock Market Will Keep Falling

What's up, guys? It's Graham here. So, it seems as though every few months there's a new major shift in the market that continues to pull prices from one side to another. This week, we might just have the next major catalyst that would completely change the landscape for both stocks, crypto, and real estate. To the point where if you thought the market was crazy today, just wait. Over the last few days, we've seen oil prices surge to their highest level in almost ever. Mortgage rates dropped as home prices set off yet another record. Bitcoin jumped 13% as a result of a sudden short squeeze. Earners above a hundred thousand dollars are now extremely pessimistic about the outlook of our economy. And as a result, the stock market is setting itself up for yet another reversal.

So, let's break this down, and I'll talk about exactly what's going on, why this is happening, what might come from this, how the stock market is quickly changing course, and finally, what you could do with this information to be prepared. Because I have to say, this is one of the most unpredictable markets that I have ever seen, and understanding a few key points could go a long way. Although before we start, if you appreciate this information, one of the best ways to support the channel is by either hitting the live like button or subscribing if you haven't done that already. They're both totally free. It takes you just a split second, and as a thank you for doing that, I will do my best to respond to as many comments as possible. So thank you guys so much.

Now, with that said, let's begin. Alright, so first, you can't deny that right now, there's some really interesting forces at play that impact all of us as investors, at least in the short term, that are worth taking into consideration. Because what we're seeing has now begun to create a domino effect across multiple industries. If you want a quick 90-second summary of what's going on, here you go. As most of us have seen and experienced, a month ago, it was reported that inflation came in at its highest level in 40 years, with a whopping 7.5% increase. This forced the Federal Reserve to take an abrupt action to raise rates to prevent prices from rising even higher.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices spiked from a disruption in natural gas production. Wheat prices climbed to their highest level in 14 years. Sanctions were issued throughout dozens of U.S. and international companies, and our market began to price in the impact of international turmoil along with lower earnings. On top of that, there was also the concern that oil, wheat, semiconductor, and computer chip processing were being impacted. We could see even higher inflation, causing, of course, the Federal Reserve to take an even more aggressive stance in interest rates, and inadvertently crash the market.

However, as a side effect of this policy, we’re seeing three very important changes that are worth mentioning. The first has to do with stock prices. See, when companies report earnings, as they do every quarter, they typically issue guidance to their expectation throughout the rest of the year. This gives shareholders a better understanding of upcoming earnings, sales projections, company expansion, and market conditions. It frequently influences Jim Cramer’s recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the stock. Netflix! Okay, but for real, this type of guidance caused Netflix to plummet 30% overnight, or Facebook to fall 26% on the warning of slower user growth, along with Snowflake at 14%, where Zoom stock is under perpetual decline from glory now that people are meeting face to face again.

Point being, guidance absolutely shapes the way companies report to investors, and that has a major impact throughout our entire market. For example, as MarketWatch pointed out, the ratio between negative and positive guidance spiked above average for the first time since prior to the pandemic. An analyst at Morgan Stanley warned last week's tactical rally in equities will likely run out of momentum in March as the FED begins to tighten. In earnings, the earnings picture deteriorates. He cautions that companies will likely have a tougher time meeting earnings expectations this year than investors think.

In terms of where investors are moving their money to, it's what he calls operational efficiency. These are companies who have a better chance at delivering earnings during a challenging environment, which means instead of paying for growth potential and defense, markets are preferring strong core businesses who have a longstanding profitable business model. Something tells me that Warren Buffett would be very happy to hear about this. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway is now outperforming the S&P 500 over a one-month, one-year, and five-year time frame, serving as reinforcement that slow and steady can absolutely still win the race.

Although, as we could see since the beginning of 2022, we’ve seen a rotation away from growth in tech and back into boring, fundamentally sound companies that were overlooked during times of record low interest rates. The sentiment is that we've seen what’s called the risk-off approach as investors play it safer, speculate less, and move towards the companies who are most likely to post consistent profits. Although while those stocks are doing well during a time where oil increased more than 20% in a single week, the impact of interest rates is also taking on another drastic change in housing.

Just recently, home price growth set yet another record with a 19.1% increase over the last 12 months, which is the highest level in the last 41 years. And just wait, it gets even crazier. Experts now predict the prices could rise another 10% this year. So, how is that even possible? Well, CoreLogic explains that in December and January, for sale inventory continued to be the lowest we have seen in a generation. Buyers have continued to bid up prices for the limited supply on the market. On top of that, you have an increasing price of materials through skyrocketing shipping, labor, and supply chain costs.

A lack of new construction from building delays, and the one that some of us could see coming, a buyer rush to lock in a low rate before they go up. See, the reason this is so crucial is that when interest rates rise, that increases the cost of getting a mortgage. It's generally assumed that for every one percent increase in interest rates, a buyer's affordability drops by 11%, meaning they'll now afford less. Their monthly payment goes up, and with that in mind, it’s a lot better to lock in today than it is to wait.

Although what's unique in this situation is that mortgage rates are largely influenced by what's called the 10-year treasury yield. That's because mortgage-backed securities and treasury yields are in direct competition for investor money. So when one moves, the other tends to follow to stay competitive. After all, if you wanted a safe investment, would you rather loan the government money for 10 years or buy someone's mortgage who used their home as collateral? In this case, international attention is actually causing more investors to put their money in a 10-year treasury as a safe store of value, causing the yield to go down and forcing mortgage rates down alongside with it.

That, of course, gives would-be homebuyers another opportunity to lock in a low-interest rate before they go back up, and they're taking it. As a result, the recent property analysis suggested that U.S. home prices would rise another 10.3% this year. Underlying demand is still extremely strong. However, don't go spending all of your money on real estate quite yet, because the head of Hunter Housing Economics warns that the recent pace of home price increases is clearly unsustainable. Even though he believes that housing prices could still rise another eight percent this year followed by another four percent in 2023, he anticipates that home prices will rise in tandem with wages.

So, if wages are up nine percent, then housing, in theory, could also go up that same amount. Although before we go into the impact on those rising prices along with the dreaded wage-price spiral, we have to talk about what's going on with cryptocurrency. And by the way, I just set this up, but if you want the entire summary of my videos emailed to you on a weekly basis just like this, it'll be one of the top links in the description. But now, with that said, let's talk about cryptocurrency.

Throughout last week, Russian financial sanctions have pretty much been the front page headline across every major news outlet, and during that exact same time, Bitcoin instantly rallied 13%, leading people to believe that potentially the public was turning to cryptocurrency as a way to store their money in a decentralized asset. Although it appears as though that's only a small piece in the overall picture, and instead, the sudden move upwards was the result of a short squeeze. While Bitcoin went from being 52% shorted to 47% shorted almost instantaneously. Or in other words, a portion of those investors had to cover their position during a time where roughly 254 million dollars moved into the markets, causing the price to go up. This creates even more buying demand, as short sellers have to buy the underlying Bitcoin to exit their position.

Leading us to what we just saw. At least according to the Daily Hurdle, another analyst at iBest also agrees with this, saying that if the cryptocurrencies are being used to fund the war or to evade sanctions, it's likely that they would be sold off for other major currencies, such as the US dollar, thereby balancing out the price increase. Anyway, even though the current pricing is encouraging to Bitcoin holders, with some analysts now saying that forty-eight thousand dollars is the next bull target, it's absolutely clear that Bitcoin is getting a lot of attention for its decentralization.

So, whether or not prices will continue to increase is yet to be seen. Although speaking of increasing prices, you know what else is increasing besides oil, wheat, housing prices, inflation, and my stress levels? A wage-price spiral! Which, throughout the last few weeks, has been gaining a lot more attention. For those unaware, this is the phenomenon where prices increase, and as a result, workers demand more pay to reasonably afford those items. Although as their pay increases, so does demand to buy those items, which causes the prices to go up even more, causing workers to have to earn even more to pay for those items. And that repeats an endless cycle until eventually a Toyota RAV4 costs almost a hundred thousand dollars.

Oh wait, as of now, the expectation is that inflation will subside once supply chains begin working normally, and more inventory is able to enter the market. But whether or not that could happen before wages increase to the point of driving even more demand is yet to be seen. The Wall Street Journal reported that the last wage-price spiral occurred throughout the 1970s during a time of runaway inflation, where workers and businesses began planning for paying price increases simply because they believed their costs would keep going up. And now, for the first time since then, both wages and inflation are rising at the exact same time, sparking a worry that there's the potential of repeating what we saw 50 years ago.

Fortunately, it does look as though the likelihood of this worsening is rather slim given the Federal Reserve's active approach to curbing inflation, unlike the policies that were in place back in the 1970s. S&P Global even mentions that even though a wage-price spiral is possible, both wages and inflation seem to be stabilizing, and consumer sentiment seems to be that inflation is going to remain relatively the same, meaning it's unlikely that prices will surge even higher than they are today. That's why, throughout all of this, the next major market catalyst that we know about is going to be the Federal Reserve meeting on March 16th where they decide how much of an interest rate hike they move forward with.

Ultimately, their goal is to tame inflation, help bring down rising prices, and allow the market to be able to function on its own. So, in the meantime, I'm buying as normal and continuing to dollar-cost average into the market. Now seriously, given all the information that's at our disposal, unless you plan to trade oil and wheat futures, flip real estate, or gamble on short-term volatility, realistically, it’s best to stay invested, stick with the normal plan, and carry on as usual.

Now sure, speculative unprofitable growth companies have suffered a lot, and they may continue to go down in value, but with the diversified approach throughout a broad market, it realistically shouldn't make that big of a difference. Unless, of course, you're all in Rivian, in which case, why? But for everyone else, I hope this explains what's going on, why the market is moving the way it is, and why you should subscribe if you haven't done that already.

So thank you guys so much for watching. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram. On my second channel, The Graham Stefan Show, I post there every single day I'm not posting here. So, if you want to see a brand new video from me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. Thank you so much for watching, and until next time.