yego.me
💡 Stop wasting time. Read Youtube instead of watch. Download Chrome Extension

The Most Common Cognitive Bias


3m read
·Nov 10, 2024

I'm gonna give you guys three numbers. A three number sequence, and I have a rule in mind that these three numbers obey. I want you to try to figure out what that rule is. But the way you can get information is by proposing your own set of three numbers, to which I will say yes, that follows my rule, or no, it doesn't follow my rule. And then you can propose what you think the rule is. Is that fair?

Okay, so here are the three numbers: 2, 4, 8. 2, 4, 8. You don't need to continue the sequence; you can propose a totally different sequence, whatever you want to propose, and I will simply say yes or no.

2, 4, 8?

16, 32, 16, 32, and 64? Those also follow my rule.

Okay, what's the rule you think?

Multiply by 2?

That is... not my rule.

What? That's not my rule. But you're allowed, if you want, to propose 3 other numbers.

3, 6, 12.

3, 6, 12? Follows my rule.

10, 20, 40.

That follows the rule.

I'm still multiplying by two.

I know [Laughter] I know what you're doing. And yes, it follows my rule, but no, it's not my rule.

5, 10, and 20?

Follows my rule.

100, 200, 400?

Follows my rule.

500, 1000, 2000?

Follows my rule.

You want me to keep going?

But do I just keep going? You going to tell me or what?

[Laughter] Am I doing it the wrong way? Am I approaching this the wrong way?

You're totally fine, but you're approaching the way most people approach it. Like, think strategically about this. You want information. I have information. The point of the three numbers, right, is to allow you to figure out what the rule is.

Okay, I'm going to give you the numbers that I don't think fit the sequence and see what you'll say. So I'll say 2, 4, 7.

Fits my rule.

So, whatever I propose is right?

So, is your rule like you can propose any number?

So, the rule is anything we say is yes?

No.

Damn it [Laughter] But you were on the right track now. Hit me with three numbers.

3, 6, 9.

Follows my rule.

Hmm... Oh, that didn't follow my rule.

This is good, right?

5, 10, 15.

That follows my rule.

What? Oh... Really?

Yeah, I don't believe this.

1, 2, 3?

Follows the rule.

What about 7, 8, 9?

[Laughter] Yes, that follows the rule.

8, 16, 39.

Fits the rule.

Excellent. But we're no closer to the rule. I want you to get to the rule.

How about 1, 7, 13?

Follows the rule.

11, 12, 13?

How does this make sense?

Follows the rule.

10, 9, 8?

I don't know how to do this.

Does not follow the rule.

10, 9, 8 does not.

Oh, so, is it all in ascending order?

Boo yeah! Up top! Yes. First ones to get it. You guys nailed it. That's the rule.

That's the rule. Numbers in increasing order.

Awww.

Numbers in ascending order: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 15, 25, doesn't matter. Any numbers in ascending order.

I was inspired to make this video by the book "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb.

Now, "The Black Swan" is a metaphor for the unknown and the unexpected. I mean, in the old world, the theory was that all swans were white. So, each instance of a white swan would make you think, "Yeah, that theory is pretty good."

But the point is, you can never prove a theory true, and in fact, when people found Australia, they realized that there were black swans.

What was interesting for me was that everyone I spoke to came up with a rule very early on and then only proposed numbers that fit with that rule they were thinking.

I was looking for you guys to propose a set of numbers that didn't follow your rule and didn't follow my rule.

I was looking for you guys not to try to confirm what you believe. You're always asking something where you expect the answer to be yes, right? Like, you're trying to get at it.

But, instead, you want to get the no's. You want to get the no because that's much more informational for you than yes. Like, everything is a yes.

That is true. That is really true, and once you say that.

That is what's so important about the scientific method. We set out to disprove our theories, and it's when we can't disprove them that we say this must be getting at something really true about our reality.

So, I think we should do that in all aspects of our lives. If you think that something is true, you should try as hard as you can to disprove it.

Only then can you really get at the truth and not fool yourself.

More Articles

View All
What EVERYONE Needs To Do With Their Money ASAP
What’s up you guys, it’s Graham here. So I want to begin this video on a very serious note. As many businesses and cities begin to shut down, cease operations, close schools, cut hours, and inevitably begin laying off workers, it’s really more important …
Electron configurations of ions | Atomic structure and properties | AP Chemistry | Khan Academy
In many videos, we have already talked about electron configuration, and now in this video, we’re going to extend that understanding by thinking about the electron configuration of ions. So these are going to be charged atoms. So let’s just start looking…
2003 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting (Full Version)
[Applause] We promise not to sing Good Morning, and we’re delighted to have you all here. One of the things that makes it fun to run Berkshire is that we see real shareholders. We probably have a larger proportion of our shares held by individuals and not…
Electrolytic cells | Applications of thermodynamics | AP Chemistry | Khan Academy
Electrolytic cells use an electric current to drive a thermodynamically unfavorable reaction. Before we look at a diagram of an electrolytic cell, let’s look at the half reactions that will occur in the cell. In one half reaction, liquid sodium ions reac…
How to Not Become A Man-Child (or Woman-Child)
We live in an era of adult-children: everybody wants freedom, but nobody wants responsibility. But, the truth is, you can’t have freedom without taking personal responsibility for your own needs. Wanna live on your own? You have to be responsible for co…
The Second Great Awakening - part 3
Okay, so we’ve been talking about the Second Great Awakening and its context in early 19th century America. The Second Great Awakening was this period of religious revival that was kind of at its hot point in 1820 to 1840. In the last couple of videos, we…