yego.me
💡 Stop wasting time. Read Youtube instead of watch. Download Chrome Extension

Why I Dont Trust The Polls This Election #shorts


less than 1m read
·Nov 7, 2024

Kevin, what does your gut tell you about how tomorrow goes?

A binary outcome is going to be decided by 3:00 or 4:00 in the morning. That's my guess, like everybody else is guessing. I’m in the camp that says the swing states all go to one side or the other.

I don’t trust polling anymore. You know, I’ve even looked at private polling data, and the problem I’ve learned, just as an investor, is that the actual panels that are done, either online or by cell phone, are very small.

So if you're polling a county and only getting 1,200 people, your margin for error is over 4%. And if no candidate is more than 2% ahead, it's useless data.

So my gut tells me people have decided. You’ve got really a different way to look at these two candidates in terms of the direction they want to take the country on so many different issues.

I think you're going to find out tomorrow, sometime maybe between 1:00 and 3:00 in the morning, it's all one side or the other. I really believe that to be the case.

So pollsters, you’ve got to find a new career. Call me, I might give you a job somewhere.

More Articles

View All
The Path to $100B by Paul Buchheit
It is now my great pleasure to introduce my longtime colleague at Y Combinator, Paul Buchheit. Paul is known for a lot of things, not the least of which is his wisdom in all things when it comes to startups. But he’s also, of course, the creator of Gmail,…
Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor
When you think about resilience and technology, it’s actually much easier. You’re going to see some other speakers today, I already know, who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff, and, of course, with technology it never is. So it’s very easy, com…
Why you SHOULDN'T buy a home
What’s up you guys? It’s Graham here. So, I think it’s a safe assumption that buying a home isn’t for everyone. Once you start looking at these statistics, that statement becomes very evident. It was found that 44% of homeowners regret their home purchase…
$25,000 vs. $25,000,000
This is what a $25 million a year salary looks like versus a $25,000 a year salary. About 20% of Americans live on this amount of money or less. I want to show you the lifestyles of people who make this much money versus this much money and everything in …
Claire McDonnell and Jennifer Kim on Building an Inclusive Company Culture
Okay, so we’ll just like dive into this. And I’ll start by saying, you know, I’ve heard many successful founders, founders of later-stage companies like Dropbox and Airbnb, say that one of the most important things that they spend their time on as founder…
WHACK REBECCA BLACK! .. and more: DONG!
Vsauce. Today on my subway ride into work, I earned the very final star I needed in Angry Birds. But I know what you’re thinking. “Michael, I don’t care. I want things I can do online now, gosh!” DONG. Let’s begin with Leanback. That’s right, there’s a …