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Why I Dont Trust The Polls This Election #shorts

less than 1m read
·Nov 7, 2024

Kevin, what does your gut tell you about how tomorrow goes?

A binary outcome is going to be decided by 3:00 or 4:00 in the morning. That's my guess, like everybody else is guessing. I’m in the camp that says the swing states all go to one side or the other.

I don’t trust polling anymore. You know, I’ve even looked at private polling data, and the problem I’ve learned, just as an investor, is that the actual panels that are done, either online or by cell phone, are very small.

So if you're polling a county and only getting 1,200 people, your margin for error is over 4%. And if no candidate is more than 2% ahead, it's useless data.

So my gut tells me people have decided. You’ve got really a different way to look at these two candidates in terms of the direction they want to take the country on so many different issues.

I think you're going to find out tomorrow, sometime maybe between 1:00 and 3:00 in the morning, it's all one side or the other. I really believe that to be the case.

So pollsters, you’ve got to find a new career. Call me, I might give you a job somewhere.

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