History of Tesla Ponzi Pops

Today we'll go over the history of Tesla's ponzi pops. These are those insane plus 100 moves within a month or two, which happened four times over 14 months. I'll show you what I look for and also my positions as we head into earnings tomorrow.

Like all non-dividend stocks, Tesla's a ponzi asset. Elon prints him, and he can print as many as he wants. But Tesla's behavior is very unique, and if we look at history, we can see there were some defining moments, not just for Tesla but the evolution of the ponzi markets together. In fact, I have no doubt Tesla gave birth to the behavior of meme stocks.

The first ponzi pop, and by far the most important ponzi pop, happened two years ago on October 2019, when Tesla shocked the world because they actually reported a quarter of profits when everyone was expecting losses. What moves markets isn't just the information alone, but it's also the shock factor. The shocking profits sent Tesla up 20% that day after hours and up 40% over the next month.

But that's not what made it special, because it's just a significant move due to earnings, which happens to other companies too. What made it special are these second and third moves that happened between December and January 2019, where the stock went up 50% and then another 95%. That kind of parabolic move, where a stock ascends for two months with barely a down day, is pretty much unheard of and didn't really happen again for anyone until it happened again to Tesla.

The second ponzi pop happened between June and July 2020 when Tesla increased 75% for no reason at all, so I'm not going to talk about it. Then a third ponzi pop happened a month later in August 2020, when Tesla said they were going to split their stock. That sent it up another 90%.

The fourth pop was between November 2020 and January 2021, where Tesla increased another 100% because it was emitted into the S&P 500. Since then, not much has happened, and Tesla has been somewhat normal for the past nine months, probably because Tesla's children GameStop and AMC took a lot of action.

However, this is Tesla, and insane ponzi pops are in its DNA. The best time to act is when people are starting to forget that because that's when the volatility is low and the options are cheap. I got some call spreads last week when they were cheap, but also got lucky with the timing because it was right before the move up from 800.

So now I'm holding 10 call spreads between 900 to 930 with a max return of thirty thousand and four put spreads between seven hundred and six and six sixty with a max return of sixteen thousand. I also traded at a different position that I closed to actually get these, so the cost basis was only about three hundred.

So there you have it. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Good luck! Ponzi up!