yego.me
💡 Stop wasting time. Read Youtube instead of watch. Download Chrome Extension

The 5 Forces Impacting the World Order


2m read
·Nov 8, 2024

Your analysis of economic historical events is based on five forces, and I'd really like to start this conversation by getting you to just quickly summarize those five forces.

Okay, uh, just to give you a little bit of background, I um, I'm a global macro investor, and what I learned through my experiences is some of the times that I was surprised is because things didn't happen in my lifetime. But I found out they happened in the past, in history.

So, the three big forces that really drew my attention to studying the rises and declines of reserve currencies and empires were: first, the amount of debt creation and the amount of money creation and the whole impact of debt and money on the economy. The magnitudes are unprecedented, except you have to go back to the 30 to 45 period, and it happened many times in history.

The second is the amount of internal conflict, particularly the development of populism on both extremes due to the largest wealth and values gaps that we have. A populist is an individual who will fight and win at all costs, including the system. So, I never saw that before, and I needed to go back. I knew it existed in the 30 to 45 period and needed to go back and study it.

The third force, of course, is the great power conflict internationally. You know, we had our world order begin in 1945 at the end of World War II. Then there's a new way of doing things. The United States was the dominant world power, had 50% of world GDP, 80% of the world's money—gold was money then and had a monopoly. So, they determined how things would go pretty much.

And then, of course, now we have the great power conflicts and so on. So those three things, last time they happened, were in the 1940 to 45 period. I wanted to go study them in the past.

In doing that study over the last 500 years, I have a fabulous research team that can do this. In doing it over the 500 years, I saw that two other things popped, um, uh, maybe more important, comparably important, was um, acts of nature: droughts, floods, and pandemics. So, climate became a big issue, and of course, climate is a big force of our time. Because no matter what is done or not done, it's going to be very costly. So, it's certainly an economic issue.

And then number five was technology, the changes in technology. So, those five forces I, uh, saw, and I realized how they interrelate with each other to create this big arc. And so, it's like watching the movie happen over the same time, over and over again, and it's a great framework for looking at history.

More Articles

View All
Wildlife and the Wall | WILDxRED
We are going to build the wall. It will be a real war, a real war. Are you ready? Are you ready? This is the Rio Grande; that is Mexico; that is the United States; Texas; and that is Mother Nature’s wall. It’s pretty great. The Rio Grande starts at Colora…
Why you can't stop checking your phone
If I were to ask you why you originally created your social media accounts, you might come up with something similar to, “Well, to keep up with friends and family and see what they’re doing and stuff like that.” And that’s not a bad reason at all; in fact…
I grew from ZERO TO 100K SUBSCRIBERS in 3 MONTHS (& how you can too)
Imagine a life where you have complete control over your time, location, and finances. Well, the world is your oyster, and every day is an opportunity to live your dreams. But if I told you that you can achieve all this by doing what you love and sharing …
Ray Dalio's Warning of a Prolonged Recession in 2022 (Stagflation Explained)
Over the past few months, many economists and investors like Ray Dalio have come out and predicted an upcoming period of stagflation in the United States. Sounds like a weird and scary term, but as the name suggests, it simply means two things occurring a…
2 step estimation word problems
We are told that a race car driver has 28 cars. Each car has four tires. He has to replace all the tires on the cars. He has 22 tires right now. Estimate the total number of tires he needs to buy. So pause this video and see if you can do that. And the ke…
Philosophy for Breakups | BUDDHISM
That breakups can be horrifyingly painful isn’t a secret to people who have gone through one. The amount of suffering some people experience after a breakup is a symptom that something about this situation isn’t quite right. From a Buddhist point of view…