My Thoughts On Bitcoin

What's up you guys? It's Graham here. So I'm finally going to be talking about one of the most requested topics that I've gotten here in the channel in the last month by a lot. And that would be my thoughts on Bitcoin. After all, in the last year, it's rallied from 7,300 to over 34,000. It's officially become the best performing asset of 2020, and it's also by far the most controversial asset of 2020.

See, initially, I was not planning to make this video because of how touchy of a topic it tends to be. No joke, it seems as though talking about cryptocurrency is almost the same as talking about politics or religion. You either have people who believe that cryptocurrency is a complete sham, it's worth zero dollars, and nothing you say will ever change their mind, or you have people who wholeheartedly believe that cryptocurrency is the future and that it eventually will trade at a million dollars. But given how many people have requested that I make a video discussing my thoughts on this and what I think of Bitcoin, or they just go ahead and comment "Bitcoin" with no other context whatsoever, which seems to be pretty common, okay fine, you guys win! Here's the video.

These are my thoughts about Bitcoin, its future as a currency, and what I think it's worth, coming from the perspective of someone who's obsessed with all aspects of making money and investing. And I'll be real with you guys, I've been following it very closely. I find it quite interesting. I see the appeal, but I do have some concerns about its sustainability as a currency, and that is something I think we should really discuss.

But first, I want to mention the second best performing asset of 2020, and that would be smashing the like button for the YouTube algorithm. YouTube actually just sent out a year in review email, and guess what? Since the channel was created, the like button has been smashed 13.3 million times! And if that wasn't crazy enough, in 2020, you guys commented 900,000 times, and I responded to 219,409 of them. So for that, thank you so much, and your likes and comments mean the world to me. And with that said, let's begin the video over at my chair, and I'm going to do that cool outro again. Look at this! Keep doing this!

All right, so first Bitcoin. It made its first debut in 2009, and since then, it slowly adopted a mainstream presence. As it gained popularity, it became the best performing asset of the last decade, rising 9 million percent. The Bitcoin concept was anonymously created in the middle of the great financial crisis as a way to create a currency that was completely detached from mainstream banks and government. Bitcoins were mined using computers solving complex algorithmic puzzles that progressively get harder and harder to solve over time, and the premise is that there will only be 21 million bitcoins in existence, and that's it.

As of now, about 18 and a half million bitcoins have been solved for and mined, leaving another two and a half million bitcoins out there ready to be taken. However, because the mining process gets harder and harder to solve over time, it's estimated that the final bitcoin will not be mined until the year 2140. Although, even though the price of bitcoin has risen 9 million percent over the last 10 years, it wasn't without its ups and downs. In fact, it's not uncommon for bitcoin to rally up in price before crashing down 70 to 90 percent before again consolidating and running back up even higher.

There's also been troubles of theft, fraud, price manipulation, scams, and government regulation, which will put roadblock upon roadblock in front of bitcoin, yet here we are again close to another all-time high. So what happened? Well, lately the name of the game helping drive up the price and demand is mainstream adoption. Prior to this, demand was mostly between individuals who really believed in the concept, exchanged it as a currency, or believed in it long term as an investment. But now that businesses have begun embracing bitcoin as more than just a random store of value and instead an actual currency, prices have begun taking off.

Recently Goldman Sachs announced that they would be scrambling to catch up on bitcoin by bridging the gap between financial markets and cryptocurrency. Their former hedge fund manager believed that the price of bitcoin could surge to a million dollars in five years, driven by a large wall of money. This may have been partially inspired by China's plan to digitalize its currencies so they could reduce their reliance on the US dollar. Other stock trading apps like Robinhood, the Cash app, and Webull, who's giving away four free stocks when you deposit a hundred dollars on their platform using the link down below in the description—the offer expires shortly, and that's worth up to 1600—also began incorporating cryptocurrency trading into their platform.

And the other big news, which really seemed to have pushed this off recently, is that two months ago PayPal announced that their users would be able to buy and sell bitcoin on their platform. They also say that their customers will be able to use cryptocurrencies to shop at the 26 million merchants on its network starting in early 2021. Now because of that mainstream adoption, there's also been a big push to create a bitcoin ETF for more passive investors, and American Express also invested in Falcon X cryptocurrency trading platform, further believing that cryptocurrency could be here to stay.

But if you thought we were done, we're not done quite yet. The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, is planning an IPO to become the first-ever cryptocurrency exchange listed on Wall Street with an IPO price of between 30 and 60 billion dollars. And to top it all off, as the final little cherry on top, the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been very open about her positive thoughts overall on bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Now even though she's openly said that she's not a fan and that it's a highly speculative asset, she's also been on record as saying that the Federal Reserve does not have the authority to regulate bitcoin.

The U.S. should not stifle innovation. You should always smash the like button and that blockchain could have very significant implications for the payment system and conduct of business. And all in all, I have to agree. In the last few months, there's been a big mainstream push towards bitcoin that did not exist just a few years ago. Back then, it was driven and manipulated by people who just saw it as a quick way to make money but without actual utility and adoption. It subsequently crashed back down to the mid 3000 range.

Now, even though all of this is really good news for bitcoin, and it's easy to see why it's done so well recently, we need to talk about the baggage because I don't think it's just gonna be smooth sailing from here on out. First is regulation. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network just recently proposed a new regulation that would require people to identify themselves and their personal information upon request when transferring more than three thousand dollars. It would also require the exchange to report your information if you make more than ten thousand dollars in transactions in a 24-hour period.

Now, while that by itself might not seem like that big of a deal, the real implication is tying you as the owner to your own private wallet, where every transaction and bitcoin you hold is recorded publicly in perpetuity. Of course, there are ways around it, but still, I don't think the government is gonna let this one just go away without finding a way to track how much you get and spend. The second is the alleged price manipulation. Now, it was suggested that the meteoric rise of bitcoin in 2017 was largely driven by coordinated price manipulation using the stablecoin Tether.

Now, for those not aware, Tether is a cryptocurrency that's meant to mirror the U.S. dollar, and they claim that they hold one U.S. dollar and/or its equivalent for every one Tether in existence. So it's really no different than you giving them one U.S. dollar and them giving you back one Tether with that exact same face value. But the problem is, is there any actual proof that Tether is indeed backed by the U.S. dollar? And who's to say they're not just taking your money and then just creating as much Tether as they want to, buying bitcoin with it, and then driving up the price? Now, as of now, they have refused a true third-party audit on their financials. Last year, they also had to change their website to say that Tether is now backed by other assets and receivables from loans made by Tether to third parties, which may include affiliated entities.

In the last few months, the market cap of Tether has also skyrocketed, leading people to wonder how much of that is actually backed by U.S. currency and how much of that is driving up the price of bitcoin. Could they just create Tether out of thin air and then buy bitcoin with it? And that has yet to be confirmed or denied. Now third, we got to talk about price volatility. It's no surprise bitcoin can go down just as fast as it could go up. In the last few days alone, it went from 28,000 to 34,000, then back to 28,000, then back to 31,000 within a few hours.

Large sell orders can easily cause the entire market to drop five to ten percent in a matter of minutes, and one big purchase can easily cause the entire market to skyrocket five percent instantaneously. And if we look back beyond just a few-day window, there has consistently been a major collapse every few years that wipes out the majority of its value. In 2011, it saw a 93% drop. 2012 saw a 56% drop. 2013 saw a 73% drop. 2015 saw an 85% drop. 2017 saw an 81% drop. But time after time after that, it's continually hit new all-time highs.

So despite all of that, here's what you came for: here are my honest thoughts about bitcoin and whether or not I see this as a viable investment for a lot of people. I think they feel safe holding their money in a currency that's completely detached from government, and I certainly get the appeal. People see bitcoin as a hedge against a weakening currency, and when the U.S. dollar drops, bitcoin tends to go up. Now, I totally get the argument that people say the U.S. dollar is more manipulated than bitcoin. The government can just keep printing more money, but they can't make any more than 21 million bitcoins.

And that is true to a certain degree. Just hold on one second. There we go! Just made money appear out of thin air. Bitcoin holds value because we give it value, much like the U.S. dollar, which is not backed by anything other than the guarantee that it's legal tender and that you could redeem a hundred dollar bill for a hundred dollars worth of goods. However, the only difference is that the U.S. dollar is backed by the U.S. government, an income-producing nation, and the understanding that everyone universally around the world is going to accept this at face value for what it's worth.

And that's not to say that this is good to hold on to because even I'll tell you that this is going to be worth less over time. But certainly, this is not going to be dropping 90% in value in a year. It's not going to be going up 90% in value in a year, and overall, it's gonna remain fairly consistent. So for stability, we need a currency like this to make transactions. The issue I see with bitcoin is that even though it's being adopted on a large scale, at the end of the day, what people really seem to care about is not so much the technology or the decentralized network or its use as a currency, but instead how much money they could make from this in the future if it continues to go up in price.

Now, of course, I realize you could say that about any investment, but this worries me because traditional investments usually provide a tangible product or service that serves as the foundation of their value through revenue and profit—not so much with bitcoin, which is valued at thirty thousand dollars because it's valued at thirty thousand dollars. I wouldn't be surprised if at some point bitcoin is recognized as a digital gold or a store of value, but in order to be used as an actual currency, we can't be having these crazy price fluctuations hour by hour.

Perhaps one day bitcoin could be a global reserve currency capable of transferring trillions of dollars around the world in a matter of minutes, but as of right now, we still have a long way to go. We also risk government stepping in and trying to regulate it, or more likely they create their own USD cryptocurrency to try to replace it. I'm a firm believer that money like this is eventually going to be a thing of the past and that in 20 years from now, everything we do will be traced and digital. Like imagine when you're born, you get a social security number, and then you also get a U.S. wallet ID that tracks every single dollar that goes in and out of your account.

Now as an investment, though, in the past, I've been mostly against it. I played around with it for a while to see what it is and see what it's all about, but I've yet to invest a substantial amount of money in bitcoin long term. I think more people now are adopting the belief that it's just going to rally for a little while, crash 70%, hold there for a little bit before rallying again even higher, before doing the same thing over again. I'm really going to take the stance that at the end of the day, no one knows what's going to happen, and there's really not a lot of harm in investing a very small percentage of your overall net worth into bitcoin just so you're exposed to it.

But I certainly would not go all in or invest an amount that you're not comfortable with losing because at the end of the day, this thing is a wild card. For example, I would not be entirely opposed to investing one to three percent of my net worth into bitcoin, holding it, and then whatever happens, happens. If it goes down to nothing, it wouldn't be the end of the world, and if it goes up, then I'm glad it goes up. But it wouldn't be enough to impact the rest of my portfolio or enough for me to try to make a big break and become the next billionaire or anything.

And I gotta say, I know quite a few people who hold 90 percent or more of their entire portfolio in bitcoin, and looking back now, hey, you know what? It probably paid off pretty well. But they also risk extreme volatility in the event that it collapses 50 to 70% for really no reason at all, and that's something that I personally do not feel entirely comfortable with. And I'll be honest, it's difficult for me to ever advocate someone buying a substantial amount of bitcoin as someone who prefers a more traditional path to building wealth, usually through stocks and real estate and companies that have value and income.

But I'm never going to discourage anyone from investing whatever they're willing to risk as long as they understand exactly what they're investing in, and they're not just fomoing in to try to make as much money as fast as possible. For me, this is something that's really impossible to value, and even though some people might argue it's worth fifty thousand dollars by the end of the year or maybe even one day five hundred thousand dollars, no one knows, and every guess really is just a guess in the dark. I'm also a bit concerned about Tether and the implications if Tether turns out to be a complete sham of smoke and mirrors.

So sure, it might hit a hundred thousand dollars, or it could go back down to five thousand dollars. I don't know. I think it's interesting to follow. I get the appeal. I'm glad it's gaining some mainstream adoption. I think digital currency is the future, and maybe one day I might invest one to three percent of my portfolio into bitcoin, but I would never invest what I'm not willing to lose. And if I did that, I would have to be fully accepting of the rollercoaster ride that is bitcoin.

So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it. As always, make sure to destroy the like button, subscribe button, and notification bell. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram. I posted pretty much daily, so if you want to be a part of it there, feel free to add me there as my second channel, The Graham Stephan Show. I post there every single day I'm not posting here, so if you want to see a brand new video for me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. Thank you so much for watching, and until next time!