Signs Your Company Is Recovering From ZIRP

When my company was infected with ZPES, I was working three days a week and I got to enjoy a lot of hobbies. I got to travel; I lived the nomadic lifestyle, and I felt like I had great work-life balance. This week, my boss asked me to do something over the weekend that is a violation. You should report him to HR. I think I saw a problem with Michael just reporting HR.

This is Dalton, plus Michael, and today we're going to talk about how to tell whether your company is recovering from ZURES. As I'm sure you've seen from our previous video, we did a video on the Zero Interest Rate phenomenon. This was the kind of shorthand term for the crazy period of time around COVID where money was thrown around like confetti, and funds were doing amazing, and KPIs and metrics didn't matter.

Now we're in the recovery, and a really intelligent founder coined this phrase ZPES, and I just frakin' love it. The analogy works so well. That founder said, "ZPES," and I'm giving him the credit. Let's talk about how to tell whether your company is recovering from ZPES because all companies had to live through the ZER experience—whether it was the huge big tech companies all the way down to the two-person startups. It had a profound impact on everybody, basically.

And like, you know, to be really clear, if you're working in a company that is effectively recovering from ZPES, that's good. You should probably keep staying there; your stock is going to be worth more. Yep. If you are working at a company that's not effectively recovering from ZPES, have you considered starting a startup? That's not the worst idea. Yeah, not the worst idea.

Awesome. So how can you tell? How can you tell your company is recovering? Well, one of the most obvious things is turnover on the executive team. Yeah, turnover at the top, which is again, normally you're like, "Oh, this is a bad thing," but we are arguing that it is probably a really good thing. Yes. Why is it a good thing? Well, I would say that there's a type of executive that comes into a company that's made it. Yep.

Like a big company person, exactly—a company person who's used to an infinite resource scenario with little accountability. That kind of person is a mere paper cut inside of Google, and it is a massive, flesh-eating virus inside of a scaling-up startup. That kind of person needs to go. I would also say there's another point here: you'll often see the founders doing more.

Yeah, it's like the founders wake up one day, and they're like, "Oh no, I have to run this company. We're host and all these people I hired are actively burning us to the ground." Yes, yes, yes. So I have to wake up out of my stupor, start running my company again, and need to get into sort of a wartime mentality. I need to get real about the situation.

Well, and what I hate is that, like often times, there's an immune response to the founder in their own organization. Like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, you hired us to do these things. You shouldn't be working on products; I'm your head of product. You should be working on marketing; I have a CMO." So it's almost like the founder gets boxed in.

Yeah, it's like, well, you know, if that person is doing a great job, you're right; the founder shouldn't have to worry about it. What if the person's doing a bad job? The founder's whole nose, face, body should be involved to give them the benefit of the doubt. They were deep at the height of ZER, sure, to execute on a strategy that, in the cold light of the current environment, is not a strategy they want to work on. Perfect, perfect example.

That's giving them the benefit of the doubt but that still doesn't mean it's a good fit. No, still a bad fit, but not their fault. So this executive turnover and founder more involved thing—great, good sign your company is recovering from ZPES.

The opposite: not so good. Let's talk about a sticky one here—returning to the office. Returning to office? Return to office! Something that some people may not love. We are recording this from the Yator office; we have returned to the office.

I think there was this moment at the height of ZER when people were like, "You know, we're never going to have offices anymore. We should just tear down the office buildings. Let's turn them all into apartments. All offices are done." You know, some of the founders loved it. They're like, "Oh, I could just live on a tropical island." Exactly—Bali, right? Islands are great.

Yeah. And let's point out: I will create a world for you, Dalton, where this idea is correct. In a world where we can only be inside of our houses because everyone fears death going outside, we probably don't need offices. That's fair; that's fair.

Like, yeah, and I argue San Francisco lived in that world for a long time—two years, maybe? Maybe three? Yeah, probably three. Yeah. But not in that world; and so if a company is doing a return to the office, again, you may not love it personally, but it is a sign that the senior management has gotten real, yes, and has gotten religion on how to get their company back on track.

Yes, and if you are an ambitious person working at these places, you should be relieved because it's a sign—yes, your equity might be worth something and that you're recovering. They're like the senior management got real, and I think this is like, I hate having to argue about this because there's so much empirical evidence, right? Cities exist! What are cities? Collections of people who are closer to each other.

It's obvious that cities create productivity. Having a team close to one another obviously creates productivity. And like, we can talk about the like, but, but, but, but. Well, yeah, but like, and it's funny because people always want to quantify it. So like, you know, you run into someone at the water cooler, but it's just like having a deeper connection with the people you're working with.

And I think we can all agree you have a deeper connection with people who you see in the physical world than on Zoom screens. Having a deeper connection with people you're working with gives you the ability to potentially be more productive.

The meta point I would make on this is, even if you personally are one of the butt, butt, butt people about this, the sign that senior management is getting religion about this and is willing to like make a big change means you're working in a good place with a winning culture. That the senior manager was like, "Hey, I know some people may be grouchy about it, but we're doing this." That's a good sign.

That's a sign that they've gotten real—yes, making hard decisions. Making hard decisions and willing to have some people be upset about it, but they're going to do the right thing anyway. Again, I think that's a good sign. One would argue that a big part of ZER was using money to not have to make any hard decisions—yeah, give everybody everything, always. All the money's free!

Yes, you could do anything; you could live anywhere. Yes, this is kind of making a hard decision, which is again a sign of critical thinking. Yes. All right, next one—vanity projects. Anyone working inside of a company knows when they encounter a project that exists. Uh, the best one? I love to get someone a promotion. Yep. What is the opposite of building something for the customer and like using company resources?

It's like, I don't want to call it to justify the promotion of someone. Yes, it's like, here, build this thing. Okay, I'm going to throw this in the trash. Thank you; all of your hard work is going to get me promoted. Though, is that stealing? Like, you're taking company resources to produce something that can only benefit yourself.

It'd be like if you stole office supplies and sold it on Etsy. Yes, but worse. But worse! It's like if you stole money from a bank and put it in your bank account. Yeah, that's kind of what you... I don't know if we're going to win this argument, but okay.

But basically, there's a lot of people in a lot of companies who are like, "I need a team, and I need resources. I need budget for blah, blah, blah project." And the whole thing is a self-perpetuating. Yes, I need resources to do things so that I can get more resources to do things. And basically, the game you're playing is how many people can you get in your org reporting to you so you continue to level up.

Now, Dalton, I don't want to blame those people because I would argue that that machine, that system that they're trying to optimize was created on purpose or not by the founders of that company. And so those founders trying to correct that system, yep, is a good thing. Yeah, that's a good thing.

Like, and so, if you're working in a place and you're noticing that the people that were doing this are gone, yes or at least doing something more useful, yes, or that and you’re just like, "We're not going to do this stuff anymore," it's a very good sign. It's a sign that senior management has gotten real.

Yeah, is being intentional about the culture and system of work and not copying, especially not copying the big companies. This is prevalent in the big companies, yeah. Benefits—Dalton, I used to get this DoorDash thing and free haircuts and massages and, you know, 16 days of personal, you know, mental health time and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and those things are going away.

Yep, my company doesn't respect me and is not looking out for my best interest, right? Yep. Again, it's the sign of just like getting real. Yeah, and I think what the senior management is looking for from employees is employees that are like, "Yeah, I want to work at a real place. I want to work on real products that help real customers. I want to be paid for my work and compensated, but please don't treat me like a child and don't try to treat me as this fragile person who can't take care of myself."

Yes, and who can't make—who has to be shielded from the harsh world. It's kind of like treating people like adults. Well, it's weird because like, I think some of the analogies that maybe you rightfully expect from a government—like, you expect a government to create a social safety net. You give up taxes, and you give up certain rights to your government, and maybe you expect that in return. Your company you work for is not a government.

Like, let's not have similar—like, it's not responsible for your social welfare. And let's be clear, you're not required to work in it. Right, we're required to pay taxes to the government. So, hey, our expectations that we need to get something in return—that company, it's not the same relationship.

And I think that somehow got flipped. And you know, hey, I understand during a pandemic, shit's scary, and a company trying to step up and do right in a scary moment for their employees makes sense. But like, it also makes sense that when things aren't scary, maybe some of those practices get taken away.

Yep, the environment changed, and so it's a really good sign if those HR benefits are starting to get edited. Yeah, and it's like, have you seen the genre of TikToks, which again I'm pretty sure it's pretty clear the people that make them are now just doing the trick of... Yeah, it's basically we should make one of those—I mean, they're like, "Oh, hey, come join me while I do no work at my job at LinkedIn." And they're like, "Okay, just showed up, getting free coffee," and the day in the life is they do nothing.

The better ones are when they're working on vacation. They're not on vacation; they're just in the pool. I saw that one. Yes, yes, it's great. And so the correct immune response for you as a colleague of these people is to probably be like, "Wow, I should get a new job." Yes, yes, yes.

And it should, again, should be refreshing if you're starting to notice this being put aside, yes, right? That's a good sign. That's a very good sign. And hey, some people can be disappointed, right? Some people have adjusted to a lifestyle that's not sustainable, and when the company's like, "Hey, we don't need you anymore," they're sad.

And like, once again, I still blame the founders because, like, I don't think that was reasonable to start. But what's better—like, not correcting the error or correcting the error? Right? Yeah, I mean, ultimately, fake work jobs make a lot of people sad, and it is dystopian.

And it is like the Matrix, or it is like you're a drone in a machine where you're like, "I do work that doesn't matter." I don't even need to work; no one cares about my work output. My life is a joke. Yeah, that does not create happy people that are like satisfied with society. Not good for mental health. Not good for mental health.

And so I think it's really good to feel like you're working somewhere where your colleagues, your management, the founders of the company, whoever it is, take things really seriously and they themselves are not checked out. That should be motivating. And if you don't feel like you work at a place like that, maybe you should consider, you know, working somewhere else or starting your own company.

Yeah, because I think you'll be a lot happier. Yeah. Yes, yeah. I got one for you—here's a controversial one. You know, during peak ZER, Dalton, when my company was infected with ZPES, I was working three days a week, and I got to enjoy a lot of hobbies.

I got to travel; I lived the nomadic lifestyle, and I felt like I had great work-life balance. This week my boss asked me to do something over the weekend that is a violation. You should report him to HR. I think I saw a problem with Michael; he reported to HR. I have to work more; it's a sign your company’s recovery from ZER.

It takes a lot of hard work to make a good company happen, especially in these kind of large, scale-up, pre-IPO companies. There's a lot of work to do. Like, it's so easy to think you're at Google when you're not at Google. Yep. And you have to turn your eyes on and your brain on for five seconds, and then be like, "Oh, this isn't Google; I have to work really hard."

Like, I'm still part of making this thing happen. This thing could still not make it. Yeah, well, and the hangover isn't over. Again, I think this is part of why we're making this video now, not like a year ago, is zero interest rate stopped a while ago.

Yes, but there's a lot of slow unwinding of all this stuff. It's literally taking years for the course correction to happen. It's not done yet; not done. Well, and I mean, if we're just telling an employee for a second to be strategic—hey, make like—it's great if you're working at a company that's recovering from ZER.

Two, can you be on the right side of the recovery? Right? Like, like, you don’t want to be seen as part of the problem. You want to be seen as part of the recovery. Yep. And what I will say is that maybe you feel burned because those efforts during ZER weren't rewarded, but if you're at the right kind of company, those efforts will only be rewarded more and more now.

Like, and we see that in spades. Like, when people wake up and they start taking account for, "Hey, what have you done?" [Laughter] Yeah, eventually the hard workers get ahead; eventually, they get ahead.

All right, so I think we want to summarize this. Kind of how we said in the beginning, it might be hard if you're working at a company recovering from ZPES. Like, like, your lifestyle might be taking a hit. If you're actually doing this so that you can make a great product, serve customers, make the world a better place, actually learn skills, be a part of a team—it's doing things. You're going to learn a lot more.

You are. I mean, this is like the decision between going to a challenging school and a non-challenging school, right? Like, you're going to learn more at a challenging school. And you're going to learn more around people who want to be at a challenging school. You're going to learn more, you're going to have so much more fun being with people who want to work hard versus people who want to be on permanent nomadic.

Yep, whatever. So suck up the pain, you know, deal with it, and consume the benefits of that. And if you are at a company that is not recovering from ZPES and there's evidence of ZPES everywhere—what do you do?

Yeah, you might want to find a different job or you might want to start a company. You might want to bootstrap; you might want to work for yourself. There's lots of choices. Like, yeah, if you want to live a very flexible lifestyle, there are ways to work for yourself and pull that off. But be careful where you are because it might not be around.

Yep, all right. Good chat; thanks. [Music]