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Amazon Stock Split?

2m read
·Nov 3, 2024

Today I'm gonna do something different and talk about when Amazon might split their stock with respect to what happened at Google. Now let me first mention that I called the Tesla split last year, and I will reveal my positions for Amazon later.

Now, some finance junkies are out there thinking stock splits don't affect the value, and once again, you have to be an idiot to believe the things you learned in finance. If we look back at what happened to Tesla, Apple, and Google, it's clear that splits do affect the value because it affects the Ponzi value—the only value that matters. Cheaper stocks are easier to shuffle and pump.

In the previous video, I showed how Amazon stayed flat over the past year while they made 30 billion dollars. That phenomenon is actually quite common; I call it the Google scenario in my research because Google stayed flat between 2007 and 2011 while the company made 29 billion dollars. Google basically had a ceiling at around 650 for four years, and it didn't break until they announced the stock split in 2012.

Back then, a 700 stock was uncommon and expensive, similar to what a 3,000 stock is today. Over the past year, Amazon had a similar Google-style ceiling at around 3,700. Now, that ceiling can break naturally over time with inflation, but I think Amazon's going to do it artificially with a stock split. Well, based on what happened at Google, I think we can all agree that Amazon will definitely split their stock within the next three years if they stay flat.

But I think it's going to happen within the next year if they stay flat because people are just less patient now. Furthermore, given what happened to Tesla and Apple, if they make that announcement, it will probably happen when they are releasing earnings.

As for me, I have a few bullish spreads that expire November 5th. The one highlighted is a call spread between 36 and 3,800 that closed around seven dollars today. So it's about a seven hundred dollar bet to win twenty thousand. I think it's a decent deal because thirty-six hundred dollars is familiar territory for that Ponzi asset, and these don't expire for a while; in fact, a week after earnings in early November.

However, I don't think it's going to hit that 3,800 max return mark unless Amazon makes a split announcement because, God knows, valuation is so.

There you have it. Now good luck and Ponzi up!

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