Scenes From Nigeria’s Baby Boom | Podcast | Overheard at National Geographic

Foreign when I first got this assignment, I think my first thought was, "Oh no, how am I going to do this?"

Yagazi Amazi is a Nigerian photographer and a National Geographic Explorer. Last year, Nat Geo asked her to photograph Nigeria's population, which is projected to explode in the next few decades. You know, I've spent the majority of my life in Nigeria, but I haven't experienced even a fraction of this country just because of its size and because of its diversity. Nigeria is home to hundreds of different ethnic groups and languages, but the center of gravity attracting people from all over is Lagos. With 15 million people and counting, Lagos isn't just the largest city in Nigeria; it's the biggest in Africa.

Yagazi moved there herself right after college. "I grew up in the south of Nigeria. Coming to Lagos for the first time, I was, you know, taken aback. I was like wow, this is— even as an adult, you know, I was like this is a city."

In fact, when I reached Yagazi, she was in a setting that's familiar to city dwellers everywhere—camped out in a coffee shop so she could use the internet and talk to me. "Very, very overpriced! I am very bitter about it. I will not be coming back here."

So, I haven't been to Lagos myself, but I've heard it's a city of stark contrast. You have super wealth and skyscrapers and super modern architecture in some places, and then you have, you know, extreme poverty in other places.

"Tell me a little bit, can you give me a little tour of what it's like to travel across Lagos?"

"You get off the airplane and obviously leave the comfort of the air-conditioned airplane into the—an air-conditioned airport. You might get stopped by customs. We will probably try and ask you if— I know it sounds like such a stereotype—but like try and ask you for some like money. But you go outside and you see the traffic. You see, you know, the standard yellow buses, the conductors, you know, hanging out of the buses or negotiating with each other, or what would cost them."

The legendary Lagos traffic is just one data point in the country's massive growth. Nigeria is already a huge country. It has the largest population in Africa and is sixth in the world, with more than 220 million people. In just a few decades, Nigeria is on course to add as many as 150 million more people. Some models project Lagos to become the world's largest city by the end of the century.

"So what's driving the baby boom, and is Nigeria ready to handle it?"

I'm Peter Gwynn, editor at large at National Geographic, and this is Overheard, a show where we eavesdrop on the wild conversations we have here at Nat Geo and follow them to the edges of our big weird, beautiful world. As the world population passes 8 billion, we're focusing on women in two countries going through massive population change. This week, what Nigeria's population growth looks like through the lens of Yagazi Amazi. And in a country where the median age is 17, the energy of its youthful population could make it an economic powerhouse—but only if its leaders make the right moves.

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There are more than 8 billion human beings here on planet Earth. That's more than ever, and the number is going up. The U.N. predicts that later this century we could reach 10 billion or more before it levels off. A lot of that growth is happening in sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, between now and 2050, that's where two-thirds of the world's population growth is expected to come from, and no country in that region is bigger than Nigeria.

By 2050, Nigeria could squeeze nearly 400 million people into a country roughly one-tenth the size of the United States. Before diving into what that population change looks like with Yagazi Amazi, I wanted a better understanding of what's causing it.

"So can you help put it in perspective for us? How quickly is Nigeria growing, and how does it compare to other countries?"

"Uh, well, first to say that yes, the population is going in very alarming rates."

That's Akani Akinyemi. He's a Nigerian demographer who studies population and health based at Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria.

"For instance, you look into what we demographers call the total fertility rate, which should represent the number of children that a woman will have. Currently, it's almost six—about 5.5 to around six children per woman. Yeah, it does that—the average. Almost 20 years ago, the Nigerian government tried to curb the fertility rate. It rolled out a 10-year plan recommending that women have no more than four children. But when it comes to the decision to have kids, Connie says that many Nigerians lack access to two very important tools: contraception and education for girls. About 12 percent of Nigerian married women are using modern contraceptives. So when you have it low like that, again there will be problems because it means that people are likely to have pregnancy when they do not plan to have it. You know, studies have also shown that people who are poorly educated, people who are poor and who also live in rural areas, are the people who are disproportionately affected—I mean having more babies than other people. So you therefore need to look into how do you, therefore, invest in such areas to improve the quality of life, also to improve, you know, their negotiation power, you know, so that then they can negotiate better to say no, this is when, this is how I want to have babies."

"Looking at other countries that have struggled with large population growth, you know, I'm thinking specifically of a place like China that's taken the—you know, the famous one-child policy. Could you see Nigeria ever sort of taking on something massive like that? Some sort of massive, you know, policy to try to manage the growth in a really dramatic way like that?"

"You know, the political economy atmosphere in China and Nigeria are not comparable, but that does not mean that government cannot make things to happen. But rather than having those, what people time to be draconian laws—they can work in a place like China—in Nigeria, such—you know—cannot work. What we need to do is to prioritize investment. If a woman has, like, high school completed, because of the time you spend to have that high school, you are not likely to be like a young girl who started having children at 14, because you know you stay in school until 18 and now if that same lady now goes for higher education—maybe you go to university or you go to college—then you'll be there until like 23, and you don't want to start having children. You know, so that makes a whole lot of difference. And so government can therefore look into that and see how to improve."

"Nigeria's population is very young, and you've written that means a big opportunity for the country if it's handled right. What do you think that the government needs to do to kind of harness all this potential—this young potential?"

"You look into government investment, for instance, into higher education. Because if you invest in things where young people can have skills, okay, then you are investing in them to be economically viable. And they're also likely to bring the desired outcome, you know, because then you know you are better off than somebody who is not working. So if you make right investment for people who are highly skilled in communication, highly skilled in medicine, they are likely to complete favorably well, you know, globally, and I like it to have good, good return. So government needs to prioritize, you know, investment in these young people. Deliberate investment in key sectors, you know, to have these young people."

"So I hear you talking a lot about what Nigeria could do, but how is the country managing right now? How well is it doing to harness this youth potential?"

"I think honestly, I think the country is not doing well. You look into the cost of living—keeps increasing. The government is not opening up new opportunities for these young people, making the wrong kind of investment. You know, last year, universities were shot for like eight months. That was not sure right investments in education. So, for me—and I stand to be corrected—I think I will score the government very low."

When I reached Akani, Nigeria was a week away from its presidential elections. He said that none of the candidates were talking about these issues, although he did point out that some regional leaders were making progress. Now it's up to new President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to take on this challenge.

Also, this year, Nigeria is planning its first census in more than 15 years. Censuses aren't just about counting how many people there are; they produce statistical data that's crucial for planning. But Akani has written that in the past, Nigeria's censuses have collected incomplete data or been derailed by political fights.

Meanwhile, population change on a scale this large can be hard to get your head around. It involves hundreds of millions of people and huge issues like government, health care, and education. It's a tough story to boil down to just a few photographs. But last year, that was Yagazi Amazi's job.

"So what are the issues related to population that you wanted to illustrate with your photographs?"

"Ideally everything. When it came because Nigeria has to be repopulation, you know? You want your country to be a functional country. So what makes a country function, as also as imperfect as Nigeria is? And I think definitely with agriculture, housing, and education—those were the main ones. Because you see it every day in Nigeria: you see people who do not have access to food or the right type of food. You know, you see children who are on the streets who are not educated, so you know being put in school. So these are the top ones. It's just like what have I always seen in Nigeria, you know?"

"So one other issue that comes up in this conversation is that, you know, Nigeria is such a diverse country. It's got so many different ethnic groups, so many different languages, and different religions. How did you go about trying to photograph the great diversity in Nigeria?"

"What is so great about a place like Nigeria—and even looking at Lagos and Norm—is that once I focused on these different sectors, be it housing or health, it is that it is diverse. Still, it kind of shows the mix of people and mix of Nigerians. So I don't think there was any place that—or any of the images—that represent just one group of people or be it of a certain class, if you eat of a certain ethnicity. And I think God also speaks really well of Nigeria, that you can focus on these large things and focus on these sectors and still find diversity within them in terms of different representations of what the country is."

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"One of the things that you focused on was health care. Can you talk a little bit about how you approached trying to photograph health care, and how that related to the population growth?"

"So with health care, I want her to look at the mortality rates of infants. Infant mortality is a key indicator of a society's overall health. In Nigeria, the infant mortality rate is trending down. In the past 30 years, it's been cut nearly in half. But in international rankings, it remains one of the worst. The rate of maternal mortality—that is mothers dying in childbirth—is even more stark. It's one of the five worst in the world. Today, less than half of Nigerian babies are born in hospitals, and many expectant mothers depend on midwives. So Yagazi shadowed a midwife as she worked with her patients."

"A lot of the women who were about to—who are ready for full-time or were about to eat full-time—regularly get, you know, massages to make sure that the baby is in the correct position. And sometimes that means having to turn the baby in the womb. So yes, it was very witness to that, and it was incredible to watch but also quite honestly a bit uncomfortable because you're also watching someone who is in this conflict, which is, you know, the pregnant ladies. But then also to watch the relief and you know the midwife works, you know she's been working for over 30 years at this. So you know just by watching her hands, and she's just chatting with me, telling me what she's doing as she's like massaging their bellies and moving it around, and yeah, it was just really great to watch that aspect of her process and also just hear about the fact that you know she's never lost a baby."

"Women that have more education delay having children longer, and that has an impact on the population growth. How did you approach trying to photograph that aspect of the story with women's education?"

"I definitely wanted to represent, you know, the Muslim community because that is a huge part of Nigeria. As Akani mentioned earlier, investing in education is one of the keys to harnessing Nigeria's young population, but there's a lot of work to do. About 40 percent of Nigerian kids between the ages of 6 and 11 don't go to school regularly, and for girls, the numbers even higher, especially in rural areas. In Northern Nigeria, the Islamic militant group Boko Haram has attacked schools, like in 2014 when it kidnapped more than 200 girls in the town of Chibok. But Yagazi's photo shows what it looks like when girls do get a chance. We see eight girls posing together in a hallway, all wearing hijabs, at an Islamic school outside Lagos. I cannot, you know, have all these images and not have this aspect represented as well. And what's better than to photograph girls receiving Western education at an Islamic institution that can also keep the balance of votes, which also speaks in terms of like diversity and two things, you know, existing harmoniously at the same time."

"Thank you. One of the photos that I was really struck by in the article was this intimate portrait of a couple with their kids living in a one-room apartment, and I think it said in the captions that they don't have running water and that about 30 people live in this same building. Can you tell me a little bit about how you found that family and, you know, what that photograph says about the story of Nigeria's population?"

"The family portraits of the Arena case was actually one of my favorites—different fantastic. I spent a lot of time talking to the husband; he's a trader, and they were just, I mean, like really any other family. The time I came initially, the kids had—they were still in their school uniforms, and their eldest daughter was quite grumpy to see me there. You know, she was like, 'Why are you here? Why are you taking pictures?' What we see in the photo looks like a freeze frame of chaotic domestic bliss: mom, dad, and four kids sprawled out on their bed, mostly with big smiles. You know, there's always this on the belly. In Nigeria, at least in my experience, when you witness cases of like joy and all these genuine moments of love, and the underbelly is there's no electricity. You know, or they have to step out for a bit to go get a pail of water. Or the fact that you can clearly see that it's a one-bedroom and the bed is there. You know, I'm not saying that things are easy, but at the end of the day, these things exist. They are moments of Joy. There are plenty moments of Joy. And that's what I love most about the photograph, is that you can see the joy. However, you can see the condition. There is not an erasure of either."

"What was their outlook for the future? Did they talk about how they saw—was this just sort of a temporary situation they were in, or were they expecting things to get better, to get a better place, etc.?"

"When I asked him about home, he had already been there for about 11 years, I believe. So that really kind of spoke to the possibility of kind of like getting out, especially when you know you have to pay for school fees and sending the kids to a private school. His main complaint was, you know, that it's just really not a safe neighborhood for the kids, in terms of like armed robberies happening every now and then. But what I did appreciate is that I could tell that the family is a very proud family in the best of ways. So there was no talk about, 'Oh, you know, it's difficult for us to send the kids to school,' or, you know, there was nothing like that. You know, it was just like the kids go to school. The kids eat, and they have to schedule. They have homework to do, and we'll be going to work, right? And I think that's just—that's the reality."

"You know, the population predictions for Nigeria are pretty staggering. On the very highest end, I think 80 years from now they're projected to have 800 million people and predict that Lagos could be the biggest city in the world. I mean, potentially as a Nigerian, you know, how do you process what that future looks like?"

"Honestly, it is scary. Just because once again, I live in Lagos and I see—I see the crowds. Like forever, Nigerian, I am, I'm just like, it will get better. It has to. For me personally, is that I just have hope. I hope that we have better governance. I hope we have a way better leadership that can, you know, that can secure the nation, that can feed the nation, that can educate the nation. These are the main things. And I think that with the right leadership, we're good. But all we can do is to like hope and vote, and as individuals, you know, just do our own parts with helping our neighbors and all that other stuff because quite honestly, I don't want to think of a Nigerian that isn't functional with that much of a population."

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Yagazi Amazi is a National Geographic Explorer based in Nigeria. You can see her pictures in the April issue of National Geographic, which is all about our planet at 8 billion people. You can follow Yagazi on Instagram at Yagazi Amazing—that's Y-A-G-A-Z-I-E-E-M-E-Z-I. And check out more in our show notes. They're right there on your podcast app.

If you like what you hear and you want to support more content like this, please rate and review us and consider a National Geographic subscription. That's the best way to support Overheard. Go to NatGeo.com Explore More to subscribe.

Thank you.

This week's Overheard episode is produced by senior producer Jacob Penter. Our other producers include Kyrie Douglas and senior producer Brian Gutierrez. Our senior editor is Eli Chen. Our manager of audio is Carla Wills. Our executive producer of audio is Davar Artalon. Robin Palmer fact-checked this episode, Hansdale Sue sound-designed this episode and composed our theme music.

This podcast is a production of National Geographic Partners. The National Geographic Society is committed to illuminating and protecting the wonder of our world and funds the work of National Geographic Explorer Yagazi Amazi. Michael Tribble is the vice president of integrated storytelling. Nathan Lump is National Geographic's editor-in-chief, and I'm your host, Peter Gwynn. See you all next time.

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Thank you.

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